Costs from grocery suppliers to supermarkets increase 2.4%pa in December

The pace of supplier cost increases to Foodstuffs supermarkets was the same in the year to December as it was in November, with the Infometrics-Foodstuffs New Zealand Grocery Supplier Cost Index (GSCI) showing an average 2.4% increase in what suppliers charged in December 2025, compared to a year earlier.

“December’s result was in line with the rise seen in November,” said Infometrics Chief Executive and Principal Economist Brad Olsen.

“The usual summer cost change moratorium limits the number of cost changes over December and January, with only more seasonal and perishable items seeing movement.” Moratoriums are used by many companies and industries to minimise system changes during peak trading periods, helping to reduce disruption for customers over the holidays.

“Higher seasonal supply saw some produce costs decline, while costs rose for some specific items, including potatoes and kiwifruit. Limited protein supply globally has continued to keep meat and seafood costs higher, but rising global milk supply has helped lower costs for milk, butter, and other dairy items.”

The Infometrics-Foodstuffs New Zealand Grocery Supplier Cost Index (GSCI), commissioned by Foodstuffs New Zealand, measures the change in the list cost of grocery goods charged by suppliers to the Foodstuffs North Island and Foodstuffs South Island co-operatives. The Index utilises detailed Foodstuffs NZ data across over 60,000 products the Foodstuffs co-ops buy to stock in their 500+ stores, making it the largest dataset of its type in New Zealand, to give a real-time view on supplier cost changes.

Every month, the Index tracks what it costs supermarkets to buy the goods to put on the shelf. Previous analysis shows that supplier costs are the major component of supermarket prices, representing two-thirds of the on-shelf price.

Supplier costs rose across all but one department in December, year on year, with a slight annual decline in service deli costs overall.

“Larger cost increases for protein earlier in 2025 saw seafood and butchery costs rise the most, up 4.6%pa over 2025. A pull-back in dairy costs moderated the rise in the chilled foods department to 2.5%pa,” said Mr Olsen. “Higher costs for some fruits and vegetables, particularly potatoes, grapes, kiwifruit, and salads, pushed produce department costs up 2.0%pa at the end of 2025.”

Month on month, just over 1,800 products increased in cost from November to December 2025. “Most departments recorded no changes in December, due to the summer cost change moratorium,” said Mr Olsen. “However, there were more produce cost changes in December 2025 than in the same month the previous year, with a higher number of increases recorded in the 0-40% range for this department.”

“General operating cost pressures remain for food and beverage producers, although recent improvements in the NZ dollar, and continued small reductions in global oil prices, have limited large swings in operating cost pressures at the end of 2025.”

ENDS

Note:

The Infometrics-Foodstuffs New Zealand Grocery Supplier Cost Index (GSCI), commissioned by Foodstuffs New Zealand, measures the change in the list cost of grocery goods charged by suppliers to the Foodstuffs North and South Island cooperatives.

List cost refers to the cost suppliers charge retailers before trade spend is applied; trade spend being any form of discount provided by a supplier to allow their goods to be discounted.

The Index utilises detailed Foodstuffs NZ data, across over 60,000 products, analysed by independent economics consultancy Infometrics to produce the GSCI and publish it on a monthly basis. For more details see economics.infometrics.co.nz/report/grocery-supplier-cost-index.