Infometrics CE and Principal Economist Brad Olsen and Chief Forecaster Gareth Kiernan discuss the economic forecast arising from the Iran War.

Forecast economic impact of the Iran War

Inflation unchanged at 3.1% in Q1 2026

Iran War set to deliver higher inflation and interest rates despite weaker economy

The Reserve Bank has a big job ahead of it bringing pricing behaviour and inflation pressures under control, according to Infometrics’ latest economic forecasts. The economic forecaster predicts that higher fuel prices will drive inflation up to 4.8%pa in the current quarter – an immediate outcome of the 2026 Iran War that the Bank can do little about. But even with an assumption that fuel prices moderate in the second half of 2026, inflation is still forecast to be at 3.9%pa in March next year and 3.0%pa by December 2027, with second-round effects from the fuel price spike rippling across the economy for several quarters.

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Infometrics CE and Principal Economist Brad Olsen and Chief Forecaster Gareth Kiernan discuss the oil price and supply shock.

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Infometrics Principal Consultant Rob Heyes and Principal Economist Nick Brunsdon discuss the regional recovery so far.

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Unemployment, jobs, participation all up in Q4 2025

Infometrics CE and Principal Economist Brad Olsen and Chief Forecaster Gareth Kiernan discuss the outlook for the economy in 2026.

Forecast economic impact of the Iran War

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