<ul><li data-block-key="ilkd7">How long will higher oil prices hold back NZ’s economy?</li><li data-block-key="9p9hr">How high could inflation and interest rates go?</li><li data-block-key="150mr">When will household spending pick up pace?</li></ul><a href="/article/2026-10-recovery-dogged-by-ongoing-uncertainty" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Read the forecast story</a>

Forecast in five - October 2026

Further economic warnings – Infometrics Monthly Webinar, September 2026Just as the economic outlook was beginning to look a little more settled, a new set of risks started building on the horizon.In this webinar, Brad Olsen and Gareth Kiernan discuss the emerging pressures facing the New Zealand economy, including renewed conflict in the Middle East and its implications for global oil, fuel, and freight costs; the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence and the questions it raises around investment, energy demand, disruption, and financial risks; and the potential effects of an El Niño weather pattern on primary production, electricity generation, and the wider economy.They also explore what these developments could mean for New Zealand and how much they may alter the economic outlook ahead.The webinar concludes with audience questions on the latest economic trends.

Further economic warnings

Brad Olsen and Nick Brunsdon explore the latest regional and tourism trends from the June 2026 Quarterly Economic Monitor, including the South Island’s continued economic strength, the North Island’s gradual recovery, and the impact of travel, tourism, primary industries, and the Iran War on economic activity.

Regional and tourism differences

Brad Olsen, Chief Executive and Chief Economist, and Gareth Kiernan, Chief Forecaster and Director, will share their insights on the latest economic and business trends and what they mean for businesses and local economies across New Zealand.

The outlook for business activity

<ul><li data-block-key="22jkn">Is the worst finally behind New Zealand's economy?</li><li data-block-key="61kkg">How much has the Middle East conflict changed New Zealand's outlook?</li><li data-block-key="cscgq">What's standing between now and a lasting recovery?</li></ul><a href="/article/2026-07-moderating-fuel-prices-open-road-to-recovery" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Read the forecast story</a>

Forecast in five - July 2026

Infometrics CE and Principal Economist Brad Olsen and Chief Forecaster Gareth Kiernan discuss how the primary sector is performing.

Primary sector progress

Infometrics CE and Principal Economist Brad Olsen and Chief Forecaster Gareth Kiernan discuss the latest RBNZ decision and Budget 2026.

Recapping Budget 2026 and the May MPS

3-3 Split vote as OCR remains on hold - for now

Unemployment down a touch to 5.3%

Infometrics CE and Principal Economist Brad Olsen and Chief Forecaster Gareth Kiernan discuss the economic forecast arising from the Iran War.

Forecast economic impact of the Iran War

US President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs were announced right in the middle of us finalising our April forecast numbers. For a short time, it looked as though our July forecasts might be subject to the same uncertain fate, with Israel and Iran engaging in a brief conflict that pulled in the US and threatened to draw in other nations. But as has so often been the case throughout a volatile geopolitical year, the initial headlines dissipated, and things settled down to be nowhere near as bad as first feared.<a href="/article/2025-07-getting-used-to-global-volatility" class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Read the forecast story</a>

Forecast in five - July 2025

In this forecast in five:

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