In this month’s newsletter, Brad Olsen sets out his reasons for being firmly against a cut to the official cash rate (OCR).
Chief Forecaster Gareth Kiernan looks at some of the key trends from the Infometrics forecasts released last week. While storm clouds are brewing, strong construction activity will keep economic growth stronger than previously expected over the next year.
We continue our ‘a day in the life of an economist’ series by interviewing Paul Barkle.
Finally, David Friggens looks at migration data in our 'Chart of the Month' to show Muslim migration to New Zealand is relatively low.
Since the Reserve Bank surprised markets with its shift towards an easing bias, the outlook for interest rates has been a constant source of speculation. But the timing of the shift in stance was curious – in our view, nothing fundamental had changed, and the Reserve Bank is sending out the entire fire brigade to rescue a kitten from a tree.
Despite increasing storm clouds and general concern about the New Zealand economy’s prospects, Infometrics’ latest economic forecasts show GDP growth holding up well throughout the next year. The economic consultancy predicts 3.1% growth in the year to June 2020. A recent resurgence in residential building consents, particularly in Auckland, is pivotal to that outcome.
Immigration is a tricky topic when we can’t agree on the numbers, and aside from that is an evergreen political hot potato. Among many legitimate concerns and disagreements, New Zealand has to contend with Islamophobic arguments despite levels of migration being relatively low.
