2015 was a year in which NZ saw strong economic growth across most of our regions and sectors. But what is 2016 likely to bring? In this edition we examine this question in a number of ways.
First, our annual ‘From the Beach’ article provides unique insights into the topics that are likely to be big issues for our economy in 2016.
Next, we outline how our Profiles can support you in planning for 2016, particularly after they are updated with 2015 data on 1 February.
We then get out our crystal ball to look at what the growing uncertainty in the Chinese economy could mean for regional NZ.
Heading into 2016, the Chinese economy is dominating our thinking as we try and work out how much more of a slowdown will occur this year. Less buoyant growth in China potentially has flow-on effects for monetary conditions both here and overseas, and may also influence the rate at which international dairy prices improve this year. And while the Reserve Bank may look like its latest loan-to-value restrictions have helped it get on top of the Auckland housing market, we are sceptical about how long that feeling of control will last.
Infometrics web-based annual Regional Economic Profiles have become the benchmark for gaining an in-depth understanding of the economic structure and performance of NZ’s regions and local authorities over time. With a wealth of information ranging from employment, GDP right through to tourism estimates, housing affordability and beneficiary numbers there is something for everyone.
Brent oil prices fell this week to their lowest level in 12 years, having plummeted 42% in the last three months. The drop from US$37/bl to US$30/bl since the new year has coincided with renewed concerns about the Chinese economy, with the Shanghai stock market declining 7% (and trading thus being suspended for the day) on Monday and Thursday last week. North Korea’s announcement that it had successfully detonated a hydrogen bomb also added to financial market unrest and helped push the VIX index (a measure of market volatility for the S&P 500) up to its highest level since September 2015.
Whether you’re personally interested in a particular area, want to identify community needs, have to develop a long-term strategic plan, or allocating financial resources to where they are needed most, robust knowledge of the demographic characteristics of a community can help you build a better picture of your district or region. Infometrics interactive web-based Community Profiles are the tool you need.
