Employment indicators

One step forward, two steps back

2 Mar 2026

Rob Heyes

Our take on the latest Employment indicators (Mon 2 Mar 2026)

Filled jobs

Service sector jobs

0.2%

0.3%

In January (seas. adj.)

In December (seas. adj.)

In January (seas. adj.)

The key numbers...

Filled job numbers rose 0.2% (4,217 jobs) between December 2025 and January 2026 (seasonally adjusted). But with the December result revised down to a 0.3% fall, it feels like one step forward, two steps back. Filled jobs remain volatile month to month, with little sign of a sustained pick up.
Employment in the primary sector fell 1.0% (-1,071 jobs) in January (seasonally adjusted), the second consecutive monthly decline. Goods-producing sector jobs fell 0.2% (-660), also the second consecutive decline. The service sector, which accounts for more than three-quarters of all jobs, saw job growth of 0.3% (4,985).
Comparing January 2026 with January 2025, job growth continued in industries that have been adding jobs in recent months (agriculture, mining, transport, finance, public administration, education, health, and arts and recreation). Job declines continued in industries that have been shedding jobs (manufacturing, utilities, construction, wholesale, retail, hospitality, rental and real estate, professional services, and administrative services).
The South Island continues to provide a contrast to the North Island, with a 1.1%pa increase in filled jobs down south in January 2026 compared to a 0.5%pa decline up north. Canterbury (1.4%pa), and West Coast (2.5%pa) were the fastest growing southern regions. Northland (-2.1%pa) and Gisborne (-1.4%pa) saw notable declines in the North.
Employment of young people continues to decline, with jobs filled by 30-year-olds and under down 3.1%pa in January 2026 – the 30th consecutive fall. Jobs filled by over-30s rose 0.7%pa – the sixth consecutive increase.

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...and our reaction

Total filled jobs continue to bobble along, rising some months, falling in others. January’s 0.2% rise would have been an encouraging result had the December figure not been revised down from a flat 0.0% to a 0.3% fall.
Delving deeper, there are few surprises in January’s data, with existing trends largely continuing. Industries that have been growing continue to do so, with those that have been in decline still shrinking. The South Island continues to outperform the North. Young people continue to have it tough.
There are signs that the economy is beginning to recover across indicators such as retail spending, consumer confidence, and business confidence. And forward-looking employment indicators such as MBIE’s Job Ad index and employment intentions in ANZ’s Business Outlook are hinting that job growth will start to show through in the not-too-distant future.
However, the labour market is likely to be the last sector to show a sustained upturn. In an effort to avoid layoffs, many employers have not been fully utilising their existing workforce, so there’s likely to be headroom for economic activity to rise before job growth is necessary. And given the uncertain economic conditions of the past few years, many employers will need to see a sustained increase in business before they commit to adding more people to their workforce.

Latest updates

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Employment indicators

One step forward, two steps back

The key numbers...

...and our reaction

Latest updates

Let’s hear it for the South

Filled jobs refuse to pick up

Filled jobs flatline in December