Our take on the latest Tourism data (Wed 10 Sept 2025)
Tourism arrivals rose 2.6% in July from June 2025 (seasonally adjusted)
Tourism arrivals rose 5.2% over year to July 2025
Tourism arrivals at 93% of pre-pandemic levels in July 2025
The key numbers...
- Tourism arrivals picked up strongly in July after two lacklustre months. Tourism arrivals rose 2.6% in July, after declines of 0.3% and 2.2% in May and June, all on a seasonally adjusted basis.
- Arrivals in July 2025 were 6.6% higher than July 2024, with July 2025 arrivals amounting to 93% of pre-pandemic levels, the strongest level of recovery since January 2025.
- Growth in arrivals was driven by growth from Australia. Arrivals from Australia rose 16%pa in July, supplemented by 22%pa and 12%pa growth from Taiwan and Japan respectively. Arrivals from China fell 14%pa, and United States arrivals fell 8.4%.
- Departures of NZ tourists fell 3.7% in July 2025 from June, dragging the departures down to 85% of pre-pandemic levels, their lowest since July 2023. July 2025 was also the first month since July 2023 where the recovery of departures lagged the recovery of arrivals (93%).
Recovery of arrivals overtakes departures in July
Monthly tourism arrivals, % of pre-pandemic (2019) levels
...and our reaction
- After two months of stalling, July marks a return to recovery of international visitor arrivals to New Zealand, down almost entirely to strength in Australian arrivals. Material growth in arrivals was recorded at all airports except Auckland. Auckland arrivals notched up just 0.2%pa in July, compared to 28%pa at Christchurch, 16% at Wellington and 12% at Queenstown.
- Although new routes from Hamilton and Dunedin to Australia opened recently, the bulk of the increase in Australian arrivals came through New Zealand’s larger airports. Foreign visitors made up 27% of arrivals to Dunedin, and 42% of arrivals to Hamilton, in July 2025, showing that these routes supported more outbound tourism than inbound tourism in July.
- Most of Australia’s states have school holidays in July, with Queensland’s holidays starting on 28 June this year compared to 22 June 2024. This timing might have boosted the July result a little, but Australian arrivals over June and July combined were still up 9.1% from last year, representing the best result since summer.
- Looking beyond strong arrivals from our largest market, it’s concerning to see our second and third-largest markets – the United States and China – each record two consecutive months of annual decline. Further weakness in these markets would be likely to stall overall growth in arrivals.
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