Our take on the latest Employment indicators (Mon 29 Sept 2025)
Filled jobs up 0.2% in August (sa)
Primary industry jobs up 0.2% in August (sa)
Goods-producing industry jobs up 0.6% in August (sa)
The key numbers...
- Filled job numbers rose 0.2% in August from July, increasing for three consecutive months for the first time since July 2023. The monthly rises in June and July were narrow +0.03% and +0.02% respectively (all figures seasonally adjusted).
- Primary industries filled jobs continued to rise in August, up 0.2% from July, and rising for the third consecutive month. Primary industries remains the only broad sector to see positive annual growth in filled jobs (+0.8%).
- The number of goods-producing industries filled jobs rose 0.6% in August from July, the first month-on-month increase in jobs in the sector since September 2023. Goods-producing industry filled jobs remain 5.8% below the peak almost two years ago (all figures seasonally adjusted).
- Annual increases in filled jobs across the more detailed industries remain sparse, with eight out of 19 industries recording growth compared to a year ago. Just under half of the industries that have seen growth are public sector dominated industries such as education (+1.7%), health (+1.7%), and public administration (+0.9%).
Narrow increases signal slow labour market turn
Filled jobs, monthly % change, seasonally adjusted
...and our reaction
- The two-speed economic recovery continues to be evident across regional growth. None of the nine North Island regions saw positive annual growth in filled jobs in August, a stark contrast to five of the seven South Island regions recording positive growth. Regional filled jobs growth was led by Southland (+1.9%) and Otago (+0.8%), with West Coast, Canterbury, and Tasman all seeing 0.6% growth.
- Job ad numbers released earlier this month showed the first consecutive monthly rises in job ads for more than three years (based on Infometrics seasonal adjustment of MBIE data). Although the unemployment rate is likely to have risen in the September quarter, the combination of rising filled job numbers and job ads is indicating the labour market is beginning to turn, albeit slowly.
- Businesses will be welcoming of a likely 50bp cut to the official cash rate by the Reserve Bank next week, taking the official cash rate to 2.5%. Further decreases to borrowing costs will support businesses, although before many businesses increase their head count, they will need to see a sustained period of stronger household spending, after a difficult period on both the revenue and cost sides for businesses.
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