Our take on the latest Employment indicators (Thu 28 Aug 2025)
Filled jobs up 0.2% in July (sa)
Primary industry jobs up 0.5% in July (sa)
Service industry jobs up 0.3% in July (sa)
The key numbers...
- Filled job numbers rose 0.2% in July from June (seasonally adjusted), rising for two consecutive months for the first time since October 2023.
- The number of primary industries filled jobs rose significantly for the second consecutive month, up 0.5% in July from June (seasonally adjusted). The rise in July follows a 0.8% (revised down from 0.9%) lift in June. Filled jobs in primary industries are now up 1.1% from a year ago, the largely annual rise since early 2024.
- Service industries filled jobs rose 0.3% in July from June (seasonally adjusted), following a narrow 0.1% lift in the month prior. The annual decline in filled jobs in service industries is just 0.1%, the smallest fall since mid-2024.
- Eight of the 19 industries recorded positive filled jobs growth compared to a year ago, the highest count since October 2024. Despite the improvement, it still leaves more than half of the industries having declined, with the most pronounced falls being for information media (-7.0%pa), construction (-5.6%pa), administration (-4.6%pa), and manufacturing (-2.3%pa).
Primary sector led recovery evident in job numbers
Annual % change, monthly filled jobs
...and our reaction
- The uneven, primary sector driven recovery is evident across filled jobs growth in the South Island. Filled jobs growth remains negative in the North Island (-1.1%pa), while growth in the South Island (+0.5%pa) has been driven by the West Coast (+1.1%pa), Southland (+0.9%pa), and Otago (+0.6%pa).
- The pull back in the main centres of Wellington (-1.6%pa) and Auckland (-1.5%pa) remains significant, with these annual falls only surpassed by Gisborne (-2.0%pa) and equalled by Manawatū-Whanganui (-1.5%pa).
- Infometrics Quarterly Economic Monitor for June 2025 released last week highlighted the divide in the economic recovery between rural and urban areas. Economic growth in rural areas for the year to June was +0.2%pa, whereas provincial (-0.5%pa) and metro (-0.9%pa) areas both recorded contractions. It will take some time for improved primary sector returns to flow through other areas of the country and boost jobs growth.
- Early indications of a sustained pick-up in employment have been difficult to see as job ads have remained virtually flat since June 2024 (based on Infometrics seasonal adjustment of MBIE data). The timing of a material turnaround in the labour market remains uncertain, although most analysts expect the unemployment rate to peak in the current September 2025 quarter.
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