Employment indicators
Primary industries bucking broader weakness in filled jobs
28 Jul 2025
Our take on the latest Employment indicators (Mon 28 Jul 2025)
Filled jobs up 0.1% in June (sa)
Primary industry jobs up 0.9% in June (sa)
Job ads down 3.1% in June (sa)
The key numbers...
- Filled job numbers rose just 0.1% in June from May (seasonally adjusted). The previous month's narrow 0.1% rise was revised down to a 0.1% decline. June’s narrow rise could also be revised to flat or negative growth in future releases.
- The number of primary industries filled jobs saw its largest month-on-month rise since November 2023, increasing 0.9% in June from May (seasonally adjusted) to be up 1.2% from a year ago. Filled jobs in goods-producing industries extended their declines to 21 consecutive months and remain down 4.1% from a year ago. Service industries filled jobs rose for the first time since January, up 0.2% from May (seasonally adjusted).
- Filled jobs had been down from a year ago in the South Island for 11 consecutive months before June, but they are now up 0.2% from a year ago. This lift is likely to be due to the rise in primary industries filled jobs, with the West Coast (+1.2%pa) and Southland (+1.3%pa) seeing the return of strong annual growth. Filled jobs in the North Island remained lower than a year ago, down 1.5%.
- Job ads in June fell 3.1% from May (based on Infometrics seasonal adjustment of MBIE data). The job ads index continues to bounce around at low levels, without any material directional trend emerging.
South Island sees growth return
Annual % change, monthly filled jobs
...and our reaction
- Emerging trends in filled jobs seem to match broader trends we have been seeing in the economic recovery, with better export earnings boosting the primary sector, but with flow-on effects yet to hit other areas of the economy such as manufacturing and services industries. Given that May’s +0.4% monthly rise in primary industries filled jobs was heavily revised to a -0.1% decline, the +0.9% rise in June might turn out to be more modest in coming releases.
- Weakness is still clear across the main centres, with Auckland (-1.9%pa) and Wellington (-2.3%pa) filled jobs still down significantly from a year ago. Canterbury (+0.1%pa) has remained resilient relative to Auckland and Wellington, with its largest annual decline just -0.7%pa back in October last year.
- In our July forecasts, we shifted our expectation of the peak in the unemployment rate out a quarter, to 5.3% in the September 2025 quarter. This shift aligns with trends in monthly employment indicators, which are yet to show upward momentum, and job ads, which remain at low levels.
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