Our take on the latest Tourism data (Wed 14 May 2025)
Tourism arrivals at 82% of pre-pandemic levels in March 2025
Tourism arrivals up 0.7%pa in three months to March 2025
Arrivals from the US above pre-pandemic levels for four consecutive months
The key numbers...
- Tourism arrivals remained higher than a year ago, up 0.7%pa in the three months to March 2025. Arrivals in March fell 8.3%pa, reflecting a moderation from the strong comparator period in March 2024.
- In total, 311,808 tourists arrived in March 2025, amounting to 82% of March 2019 (pre-pandemic levels), falling from 85% in February 2025 to the lowest level since May 2024. The decrease in visitor arrivals compared to a year ago was likely related to the timing of Easter as Good Friday fell on 18 April this year and 29 March in 2024.
- The slowdown in monthly arrival numbers was evident across arrival numbers by airport. Queenstown and Christchurch Airports had seen higher arrival numbers than a year ago for since the pandemic, but fell in March, down 3.7%pa and 0.6%pa respectively. Auckland (down 8.6%pa) and Wellington Airports (down 17%pa) also saw significant falls.
- Arrivals from Australia in March equated to 87% of pre-pandemic levels, the lowest level since April 2024 when it briefly fell to 72%. The arrival nations which were above pre-pandemic levels in March were, Fiji (112%), India (132%), Taiwan (103%), and the US (101%).
Kiwi departures start 2025 off strong
Monthly tourism arrivals, % of pre-pandemic (2019) levels
...and our reaction
- Considerable strength in New Zealand tourist departures remained in March, with departures at 103% of pre-pandemic levels, marking three consecutive months above pre-pandemic levels for the first time in a year.
- Last months’ Infometrics forecasts point towards higher arrival numbers over the next few years with some challenges given the trade war. Slower economic growth for our major trading partners may weigh on the strength of the tourism recovery.
- The recent de-escalation in the trade war between the US and China reduces the some of the downside risks to future arrival numbers from our second and third largest tourism markets. Although there is more to play out on the trade front, with this week’s announcement a 90-day pause, there are positive signs with the two economic powerhouses agreeing to establish “a mechanism to continue discussions about economic and trade relations”.
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