Residential building consents

A little more upward momentum in residential consents

2 May 2025
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Gareth Kiernan

Our take on the latest Residential building consents (Fri 2 May 2025)

Dwelling consents
34,062
Over the year to March 2025
Total consents up 16% from Mar 2024
Otago consents at record high

The key numbers...

  • There were 3,398 new dwelling consents issued in March, up 9.6% from February (seasonally adjusted) and 16% from a year earlier. The monthly result was the strongest since mid-2023, and annual growth has not been higher since March 2022, before the previous peak in activity.
  • Much of the lift was driven by apartments, with 495 units consented in March, the largest number for any single month since 2022. Auckland (321 apartments) and Wellington (116 apartments) were the main contributors to this strength.
  • Nevertheless, both standalone houses (+9.8%) and townhouses (+12%) were also up significantly from March 2024 consent levels. The annual total for house consents is now up 7.1% from last June’s trough to its highest level since October 2023.
  • The biggest regional contributors to consent growth in the March quarter, compared with a year earlier, were Otago (up 55%), Waikato (up 20%), Auckland (up 3.3%), and Canterbury (up 8.2%). Northland recorded the largest fall in consents over the same period, down 42%.

Consent numbers climbing slightly

Consents by dwelling type, annual running totals
5299

...and our reaction

  • Today’s result represents welcome news for the residential construction industry, given the 34% decline in consent numbers from their mid-2022 peak. The annual consent total is now at its highest since May last year, and the March quarter result was 12% above the estimate published in our recent forecasts.
  • Most regions have shown a stabilisation and some increase in consents in recent months. Northland is the biggest exception, where the annual consent total is at its lowest level since 2015, while Manawatū-Whanganui’s total is only just above the 6½-year low recorded in February. Otago’s consent numbers are at a record high, with consents in Queenstown-Lakes now 17% above their COVID peak.
  • At this stage, we are cautious about becoming too upbeat on future consent trends, given that almost half of March’s outperformance was due to apartment consents, which are notoriously lumpy. However, continued increases in house consents, along with some emerging upward momentum in townhouse consents, do give cause for optimism about prospects for activity.
  • A large supply of properties for sale suggests limited house price growth, and with slowing population growth and uncertain economic conditions due to the international trade war, we still expect any upturn in consent numbers over the next 12-18 months to be relatively modest.

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