Our take on the latest Non-residential building consents (Tue 4 Mar 2025)
Value of non-res consents
$581m
In January 2025
Education consents total $131m in January
Office consents total $56m in January
The key numbers...
- Non-residential building in January remained weak despite improving from an extremely weak December, with the $580m total value of consents still down 40% from January 2024.
- The annual decline was largely due to a strong relative month a year ago, with January 2024’s result boosted by a $220m social building consent for Te Kaha Stadium in Christchurch. Factory and warehousing build types also saw considerable falls from strong results a year ago, down $53m and $51m respectively.
- Education was the only major building type which recorded a rise relative to a year ago, up $66m to $131m. Over half of the education consent total was from Auckland, as the region recorded its second-largest total for the build type over the past two years. Hotels and hostels also saw small rises of $3m and $7m respectively, largely due to weak results in January 2024.
- Although the largest decline by region was seen in Canterbury, non-residential consents in the region continue to hold up better than other regions, totalling $147m in January. Canterbury has seen six consecutive months of over $100m of consents for the first time since May 2018. The second-largest contributor to the decline was Waikato (down $64m to $45m). The third-largest contributor was Bay of Plenty which recorded just $12m of non-residential consents in January (down $41m), the region’s lowest monthly total since September 2012 (adjusted for building cost inflation).
Weakness in consent values continues
Annual running total of non-residential consents, $m
...and our reaction
- We have now seen two rather weak months of non-residential consent figures following a brief stint of strong results in October and November last year. Recent weakness has pushed the annual running total of non-residential consents to $8.9b, the lowest annual total since April 2022.
- Office consents recorded their weakest total in two years, with just $56m of consents in January. This result is unlikely to indicate a long-term trend – office consent values in the December 2024 quarter were up 33% from a year earlier, and activity for offices has not been as elevated as for other build types.
- Non-residential cost growth slowed to 2.5%pa in the December 2024 quarter, down from 3.2% in the previous quarter. We expect to see non-residential cost growth slow to a 13-year low in early 2026 as the pipeline of works narrows over 2025.
- We expect to see weak non-residential consent values for much of 2025 as they usually lag the economic cycle. Improving business confidence and falling interest rates should limit the extent of declines in non-residential consent values.
Latest updates
Premium
Non-residential building consents
Warehouses prevent further non-res falls in June
Mon 3 Aug 2026
Monthly
$701m Value of non-res consents in June 2026
7.4% Total non-res consents from May 2026 (seas adj)37%pa Warehouse consents from June 2025Premium
Non-residential building consents
Non-res consents weaker still in May
Thu 2 Jul 2026
Monthly
$789m Value of non-res consents in May 2026
19% Monthly consents from May 202549% Public sector consents from May 2025Non-residential building consents
Non-res consents mostly softer in April
Wed 3 Jun 2026
Monthly
$655m Value of non-res consents in April 2026
15% Monthly consents from April 2025
Office and education consents at lowest monthly levels in 5-6 yearsNon-residential building consents
Consents strong in March, but shadow of conflict looms
Fri 1 May 2026
Monthly
$862m Value of non-res consents in March 2026
15% Monthly consents from Mar 2025$119m Hostel consents from Mar 2025