Our take on the latest Residential building consents (Tue 4 Mar 2025)
Dwelling consents
33,812
Over the year to January 2025
Standalone house consents up 20% from Jan 2024
Townhouse consents up 7.7% from Jan 2024
The key numbers...
- There were 2,203 new dwelling consents issued in January, up 11% from January 2024. This annual increase was the largest since March 2022.
- Reinforcing this strength was a 2.6% increase in total consent numbers from December, and an 11% increase in standalone house consents (both figures seasonally adjusted). These results are consistent with a stabilisation in consent numbers after a weak December result.
- Canterbury and Otago made the biggest contributions to the increase in consents from a year earlier, up by 86 and 78 consents respectively. Canterbury’s lift was primarily driven by an increase in standalone house consents, with Otago’s increase underpinned by more townhouse consents.
- Nationwide townhouse consents over the three months to January were up 3.7% from a year earlier, representing the first positive three-month annual growth for this dwelling type since late 2022. The annual townhouse consent total has held between 14,000 and 15,000 since July last year.
- Apartments recorded their second-lowest month since 2016, with just 68 units consented in January. The nationwide result was mirrored in Auckland, with only 28 apartment consents for the month.
- There were 90 retirement units consented in January, up by 20 consents from a year earlier. However, the total of 233 retirement units between November and January was the weakest for any three months since early 2018.
South Island withstands the downturn better
Total residential consent numbers, year-end % changes
...and our reaction
- The rebound in consent numbers in January is consistent with our view that activity will hold between 33,000 and 35,000 consents per annum over the next 18 months. It also aligns with recent anecdotal evidence from the industry that enquiry levels are picking up and expectations that sales activity related to residential construction will stabilise.
- Nevertheless, month-to-month sales numbers remain relatively volatile, especially for attached dwellings. Weak property prices and, in some cases, still tight financing conditions are particularly inhibiting apartment and retirement unit activity.
- The South Island’s stronger economic performance is reflected in the divergence between consent growth with the North Island. Consents across the South Island were up 30% from January 2024, with just 3.8%pa growth recorded in the North Island.
- The positivity shown in comparisons with January 2024 is also possibly amplified by a particularly weak consent result a year ago. However, we see enough signs in the market that consent numbers have found a floor and will remain relatively stable throughout this year.
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37,813 Annual consents over March 2026 year
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