Residential building consents

Townhouses fall away as Auckland consents weaken

4 Feb 2025
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Gareth Kiernan

Our take on the latest Residential building consents (Tue 4 Feb 2025)

Dwelling consents
33,600
Over the year to December 2024
Townhouse consents down 12% from Dec 2023
Auckland consents (excl apartments) down 22% from Dec 2023

The key numbers...

  • Dwelling consent numbers totalled 2,478 in December, with the 5.6% dip from November (seasonally adjusted), more than reversing the improvement that had been seen the previous month.
  • Townhouse consents were particularly disappointing after November’s stronger result. With just 998 units consented, townhouse numbers were down 12% from a year earlier. 
  • Auckland recorded just 405 townhouse consents in December, which was a 22% drop from December 2023. This total was the weakest townhouse figure for the region since early 2020. 
  • House consents in Auckland were also particularly weak, with just 241 issued in December, representing the lowest monthly total for the region since July 2012. 
  • Other regions that contributed to the decline in house consents included Waikato and Hawke’s Bay. In contrast, house consents in Otago and Canterbury continue to track higher than a year ago. 
  • The rally in retirement unit consents in the September 2024 quarter has evaporated quickly. Only 68 units were consented in December, the lowest for any month since 2018. Auckland’s total of just eight retirement units in the December quarter was the region’s weakest for any three-month period since 2012. 
  • Apartment consents provided the one bright spot in December, with 360 units consented making it the biggest month since January 2023. Auckland’s 298 consents provided the bulk of activity. 

Decline resumes for townhouses

Consents by dwelling type, annual running totals
5206

...and our reaction

  • Total new dwellings for the December quarter have come in 230 below the estimate included in our forecasts published last week. The poor result was mostly due to townhouse weakness, which were 308 below forecast, while houses fell 63 consents short of expectations. 
  • Having previously expected a modest rally in consent numbers during 2025 and early 2026, we have scaled back this pick-up in our latest forecasts, with consents predicted to hold between 33,400 and 34,800pa between now and September 2026. 
  • Although house consents are largely holding their own, today’s townhouse and retirement unit results point towards near-term downside risks to our forecasts. Consent numbers for both dwelling types have failed to maintain recent improvements, and this weakness means activity could be sustained at lower levels for longer than we had been anticipating. 
  • We also note a similar reversal in listing numbers of existing homes for sale in January data. A continued surplus of housing available for buyers would reduce the scope for a pick-up in house prices this year, limiting the viability of new housing developments going ahead. 

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