Our take on the latest Employment indicators (Fri 28 Feb 2025)
Filled jobs up 0.3% in January (sa)
Service industries jobs up 0.5% in January (sa)
Job ads rise in January but remain volatile
The key numbers...
- Filled job numbers rose 0.3% in January from December (seasonally adjusted), which was the biggest monthly increase since October 2023. Filled jobs remain volatile month-to-month and subject to revisions, with December’s 0.1% rise revised down to a 0.1% decline.
- On an annual basis, the decline in filled jobs narrowed to 1.2%pa in January from 1.5%pa in December. The worst of the annual decline appears to have been in October at 1.7%pa.
- Annual declines in filled jobs by industry continue to be led by information media and telecommunications (-7.5%pa), administrative services (-7.0%pa) and construction (-6.6%pa). The annual decline in construction job numbers was the biggest for the industry so far in this downturn, equivalent to around 13,450 jobs.
- Job ads in January rose 4.4% from December, the largest monthly rise since May 2022 (based on Infometrics seasonal adjustment of MBIE data). Job ads have showed signs of levelling out at low levels over the backend of 2024 and into 2025. Month-on-month changes remain volatile, and we are yet to see two consecutive months of rising job ad numbers.
Trend in filled jobs currently unclear
Filled jobs, monthly % change, seasonally adjusted
...and our reaction
- Revisions to December’s filled job numbers removed the positive story of two consecutive months of increases in filled job numbers for the first time since late 2023. Month-to-month volatility and revisions are clouding the view of a shift in the labour market, with a clear upward trajectory yet to show through.
- The South Island remains more sheltered from declines in filled job numbers, falling just 0.3%pa in January from a year ago, compared to a 1.5%pa decline in the North Island. Otago remains the only region to see annual growth in filled jobs, up 0.6% in January from a year ago.
- The labour market tends to be the last piece of the economy to move, reflected in our forecast of the unemployment rate yet to peak at 5.3% in the June quarter. The effects of easing monetary policy will continue to flow through to households during 2025, with 71% of mortgages set to refix this year. Improved consumer confidence and spending should boost demand conditions and business revenues, helping firms retain staff and increase hiring later in the year.
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