Our take on the latest Car registrations (Wed 8 Jan 2025)
185,202
Total car registrations in the 2024 year, down 18%pa
Full battery EVs down to 4.0% of annual registrations
Stronger demand for large vehicles, and solid demand for hybrids
The key numbers...
- After a brief rally in the September quarter, passenger car registrations fell again in the December quarter, down 24%pa. This lower result saw annual registrations in 2024 total just 185,202 – the lowest annual total since 2013.
- Full battery EV sales fell 71% over the 2024 year, and as a share of total registrations shrank from 11.5% in 2023 to just 4.0% in 2024. Petrol vehicles recovered to 48% of total registrations, but with the lower annual total, were only 0.4% higher in 2024 than a year earlier. Hybrid vehicle registrations fell 20%pa, but still retained 43% of total sales (compared to 45% in 2023), with this result driven by less of a drop in non-PHEVs.
- New car registrations fell 21%pa in 2024, a larger drop than the 15%pa recorded for used car registrations.
- The drop in EV registrations, plus higher petrol registrations, saw smaller-engine capacity car registrations (which includes zero-capacity EVs) fall the most, both in the December quarter and over the year. New small car registrations fell 42%pa in the December quarter, and used small car registrations were down 52%pa. Used large cars were also down 10%pa in the December quarter, but new large car registrations were 18%pa higher.
Car registrations continued to fall over 2024, down 18%pa
Total passenger car registrations, annual running totals
...and our reaction
- Last year was a tough one for the vehicle market – the removal of the Clean Car Discount (CCD) took some of the momentum out of the market, and difficult economic conditions limited any ability for previously-restrained parts of the market to reignite. The lowest registrations total in 11 years underscores the difficulties faced.
- The removal of the CCD at the end of 2023, signalled ahead of time, makes comparisons for the December quarter difficult to judge, but there doesn’t appear to be a lot of improving momentum for car registrations in the last few months of 2024.
- Consumer spending will remain under pressure at the start of 2025 as job security concerns persist, but households refixing onto lower mortgage rates will start to support some more consumption as the year goes on.
- There’s a clear demand for larger vehicles, and also a sustained level of interest in non-plug-in hybrid vehicles, which reflects both the end of the CCD but also a balanced option of lower fuel use and cheaper running costs (particularly when road user charges for plug-in hybrids are taken into account), but less range anxiety too.
- A near-term global oversupply of EVs from increased Chinese production could drive up registrations during 2025, but range anxiety, charging infrastructure concerns, and reduced financial incentives could limit sales in New Zealand. Future global production of EVs is being scaled back, with more of a focus on hybrid options – trends that align with the New Zealand market.
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