Our take on the latest Non-residential building consents (Mon 2 Dec 2024)
Value of non-res consents
$935m
In October 2024
Hospital consents total $223m in October
Office consents total $195m in October
The key numbers...
- Following a weak result of $644m of consents in September, non-residential consents had a stronger month, with $935m of consents, up 27% from October 2023.
- The biggest contributor to the stronger result in October was hospital building, which followed up a four-month stretch of weak results with $223m of consents, up 145% from October 2023. This strength was most likely due to a consent as part of Dunedin Hospital, as Otago saw a record $202m of hospital consents in October. Another positive contributor was office building, which followed up a weak September result with $195m of consents, a 41% rise from October 2023.
- Only three build types saw falls from a year ago, led by hotels (down $44m, with October 2023’s result being an unusually strong $76m), followed by warehouse building (down $32m), and factories (down $11m).
- Consents in Auckland were down 19% from a year ago, but the other main centres of Wellington and Christchurch were up 39%pa and 22%pa respectively. As well as the record result in Otago, Tasman also had a record monthly total of $28m (up 141% from October 2023).
Strong result, but risk of declines remains
Non-residential consents, annual running total, $m
...and our reaction
- Annual total consents in the year to October 2024 were 3.5%pa lower than during the year to October 2023. The annual total has tracked lower than the previous year for eight consecutive months, although the decline has narrowed since August.
- Annual falls in October were largely isolated to build types related to business and consumer spending. Weak demand conditions will continue to restrict the need and ability of businesses to invest in warehouses (down 25%pa) and factories (down 14%pa). Despite the current uncertainty over consumer spending, improved business confidence suggests there might be more willingness to invest heading into 2025, but construction activity is likely to lag behind any lift in other capex spending.
- Public sector consents remain under pressure amid government spending cuts, although October bucked the trend with the strongest result since January. Both hospital and education building consents showed strength, but the pipeline of future spending remains unclear. Scope of the Dunedin Hospital project, which drove the October result, remains uncertain, with options being explored amid budget blowouts.
- A rally in consents might continue in the last couple of months of 2024 as there are plenty of planned projects in the pipeline, but we remain of the view that tough economic conditions will suppress activity further in 2025. It will be six weeks before the next building consents data, for November 2024, is released on 13 January 2025.
Latest updates
Premium
Non-residential building consents
Warehouses prevent further non-res falls in June
Mon 3 Aug 2026
Monthly
$701m Value of non-res consents in June 2026
7.4% Total non-res consents from May 2026 (seas adj)37%pa Warehouse consents from June 2025Premium
Non-residential building consents
Non-res consents weaker still in May
Thu 2 Jul 2026
Monthly
$789m Value of non-res consents in May 2026
19% Monthly consents from May 202549% Public sector consents from May 2025Non-residential building consents
Non-res consents mostly softer in April
Wed 3 Jun 2026
Monthly
$655m Value of non-res consents in April 2026
15% Monthly consents from April 2025
Office and education consents at lowest monthly levels in 5-6 yearsNon-residential building consents
Consents strong in March, but shadow of conflict looms
Fri 1 May 2026
Monthly
$862m Value of non-res consents in March 2026
15% Monthly consents from Mar 2025$119m Hostel consents from Mar 2025