Our take on the latest Employment indicators (Thu 28 Nov 2024)
Filled jobs down 1.5%pa in October
Filled jobs down 0.1% in October from September (seasonally adjusted)
Primary industries filled jobs up 0.7%pa in October
The key numbers...
- Filled job numbers fell narrowly between September and October, down 0.1%. October marks seven consecutive monthly declines in filled jobs, although the most recent three declines have been shallow 0.1% falls (all figures seasonally adjusted).
- The decline in annual filled jobs growth deepened, with job numbers in October 1.5% lower than a year ago. This result marks the fifth consecutive month of annual declines, for the first time since early 2010 in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis.
- The annual decline in filled jobs was exacerbated by the reduction in public administration and safety filled jobs (-7.2%pa), making up over a third of the decline in filled jobs. The decline in the public administration industry was driven by the reversal of a large rise in temporary filled jobs at the Electoral Commission for the administration of the 2023 election – a similar 7.7%pa decline was seen in October 2021 following the 2020 election. Other industries that saw declines were IT (-5.9%pa), construction (-5.3%pa), and accommodation (-3.5%). Industries which saw the largest rises in filled jobs were utilities (+4.1%pa), health care (+3.7%pa), and education (+2.0%pa).
- Across broad sectors the results remain mixed. Primary industries saw growth for the first time in four months (+0.7%pa), and with improving global dairy and meat prices, there might be additional scope for employment in this sector to continue growing. Goods-producing and service industries remain weak, with weak household spending, driving employment down by -3.4%pa and -1.1%pa respectively.
Reducing job numbers since April
Filled jobs, monthly % change, seasonally adjusted
...and our reaction
- Job numbers are weak, with growth slumping to -1.5%pa, although we anticipate the annual percentage change next month will be less negative, as October’s result was accentuated by employment for last year’s election.
- Labour market stats released earlier this month showed weak sentiment from jobseekers as the labour force participation rate fell to its lowest level in over two years. People appear to be discouraged from staying in the labour force due to a lack of opportunities in the job market, choosing to enter education, not actively look for work, or even leave the country.
- The labour market downturn has hit younger people harder, with filled job numbers for under-30s down 6.6%pa in October. Filled job numbers for over-30s were unchanged for the first time since data began (May 2020), showing the decline in the labour market may be becoming more broad-based.
- At a regional level, the South Island has been more sheltered from the decline, but Otago is now the only region where filled jobs are not lower than a year ago (0.0%pa). Growth in Canterbury turned negative for the first time since February 2021, now down 0.5%pa. The regions that saw the largest declines were Nelson (-3.0%pa), Gisborne (-2.7%pa), and Taranaki (-2.5%pa).
- We have been waiting to see public sector job numbers decline following government job cuts, but at this stage it seems unlikely that they will show up in the MEIs for a few reasons. Firstly, many of the job losses were in the form of vacant roles that were disestablished. Secondly, government and defence ads in October were only 17%pa lower than a year ago, the ninth shallowest decline out of 28 SEEK industries. We continue to monitor developments in the public sector, with job cuts at many government departments yet to be announced or only recently announced (eg, Health NZ).
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