Our take on the latest Car registrations (Tue 1 Oct 2024)
New car registrations up 11%pa in Sep 2024 quarter
Used car registrations up 1.0%pa in Sep 2024 quarter
Full battery electric vehicle registrations down 54%pa in Sep 2024 quarter
The key numbers...
- Total car registrations rose 5.6%pa in the September quarter, increasing for the first time in 2024, with both new and used car registrations up from a year ago.
- There were 21,155 new car registrations in the September 2024 quarter (seasonally adjusted), a 11%pa rise, increasing for the first time in a year. This increase may mark the start of a return to normal registration patterns following the distortionary effects of the Clean Car Discount (CCD).
- There were 23,451 used car registrations in the September 2024 quarter (seasonally adjusted), a 1.0%pa increase following a 26%pa decline in the previous quarter.
- Full battery electric vehicle (BEV) registrations continue to show distortionary effects from the CCD rush last year, as registrations declined 54%pa compared to the same quarter a year ago. Despite this annual decline, BEV registrations showed signs of stabilising in the September 2024 quarter, jumping 56% from the June quarter (seasonally adjusted), although volumes are still 78% below the rush of registrations in the December 2023 quarter before the CCD was removed.
- Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle registrations remained steady, up 28% from the June 2024 quarter. Non-plug-in hybrids have remained relatively flat in 2024, edging up 1.5% in the September quarter.
Too early to call a stabilisation in the car market
Annual running total, registrations
...and our reaction
- New car registrations rose in the September quarter, although from a low level. Weak economic conditions mean that businesses are delaying renewing their fleet, and households are potentially holding onto vehicles for longer as job security weakens.
- It remains difficult to gauge underlying demand for vehicles given and make comparisons with previous quarters given the distortionary effects of the CCD, particularly in the second half of last year. However, the lower registrations earlier in 2024, particularly for EVs, due to the bringing forward of purchases into the latter part of 2023, has probably mostly run its course.
- We expect weakness to remain in registrations in the final quarter of 2024 and into the beginning of next year as the unemployment rate reaches 5.0% for the first time in four years. Amid higher levels of unemployment, job security concerns will remain for households, leading to a reluctance to purchase big-ticket items.
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