Our take on the latest Retail trade survey (Fri 23 Aug 2024)
Core retail sales volumes down 1.0% from March 2024 quarter (sa)
Core sales values down 0.8% from March 2024 quarter (sa)
Core stock volumes rise for the first time since the December 2022 quarter (sa)
The key numbers...
- Core retail sales volumes, which exclude motor vehicle and fuel retailing, eased 1.0% from the March 2024 quarter (seasonally adjusted). This result represents a reversal of the March quarter’s revised 0.3% increase and resumes the downward trend in retail volumes.
- The value of core sales fell 0.8% (seasonally adjusted), following the 1.1% uptick in the March quarter. Annual growth in the total retail deflator (an indicator of retail inflation) eased for the seventh consecutive quarter to 2.1%, the slowest rate since March 2021.
- Supermarket sales volumes rose for the second consecutive quarter, up 2.1% from March. Other industries that saw increases were specialised food retailing (5.9%), pharmaceuticals (3.2%), and furniture and textiles (up 0.7%, all figures are seasonally adjusted).
- Accommodation sales volumes fell 4.4% from the March quarter (seasonally adjusted), and sales volumes for this industry remain volatile.
- Core stock volumes rose for the first time since the December 2022 quarter, up 0.6% from March (seasonally adjusted). Stocks remain lower than a year ago, down 2.5%.
Retail volumes resume falling
Retail sales, core measure, seasonally adjusted, $m
...and our reaction
- Retail activity resumed its downward trend in June, reversing the minor pick-up in March. Real retail sales are now 8.2% below their peak in mid-2021. The fall in core retail values, despite growth in the retail deflator of about 2%pa, shows that Kiwi households continue to face budget pressures and are trimming spending where they can.
- The rise in stock volumes points to businesses struggling to shift stock as households tighten their belts. Weak consumer confidence and spending are putting pressure on the financial position of many businesses.
- Accommodation sales volumes remain volatile, but the June quarter fall echoes the difficulties we are hearing in the market. Tourism markets are struggling despite the pick-up in Australian tourist arrivals, with general global economic weakness weighing on arrivals from China and other key markets.
- The recent official cash rate cut by the Reserve Bank has resulted in lower mortgage rates from banks, providing the first signs of relief for household budgets. However, the continuing weakening of the labour market will provide further uncertainty for households, and caution around their spending, over the next 12 months.
Latest updates
Premium
Retail trade survey
Core retail volumes grow slower as consumers adjust to elevated fuel prices
Mon 24 Aug 2026
Quarterly
-0.5% Total retail sales volumes in the June 2026 quarter (seas. adj.)
+0.7% Core retail sales volumes in the June 2026 quarter (seas. adj.)+6.5%pa South Island core retail sales in the June 2026 quarterPremium
Retail trade survey
Anxious consumers pull back on discretionary spending
Fri 22 May 2026
Quarterly
1.0% Core retail sales volumes in the March 2026 quarter (seas. adj.)8 of 13 core industries recorded quarterly rises (seas. adj.)-4.8% Clothing, footwear in the March 2026 quarter (seas. adj.)Retail trade survey
Retail spending continues to strengthen
Mon 23 Feb 2026
Quarterly
1.5% Core retail sales volumes in December (seas. adj.)11 of 13 core industries recorded quarterly rises (seas. adj.)South Island continues to lead the recoveryRetail trade survey
Retail spending recovery gaining traction
Thu 27 Nov 2025
Quarterly
Core retail sales volumes up 1.2% in September (seas. adj.)Seven of 13 core industries saw quarterly rises (seas. adj.)North Island growth starting to follow the South’s lead