Non-residential building consents
Non-res consents well down from a year ago
2 Jul 2024
Our take on the latest Non-residential building consents (Tue 2 Jul 2024)
Value of non-res consents
$850m
In May 2024
Total consents down 31% from May 2023
Education consents down $130m from May 2023
The key numbers...
- Total consents were down 31% in May 2024 from a year earlier. The biggest contributions to the annual decline came from education (down $130m), hospitals (down $85m), and retail (down $80m).
- However, the May 2023 figure was inflated by a few large consents across each of these building types, and excluding the $239m of large consents issued a year ago, the annual decline was a more moderate 14%.
- On a regional level much of the same story that shone through the build types came through. The regions with large consents a year ago led the fall, being Canterbury (down $127m), Otago (down $117m), Bay of Plenty (down $71m) and Auckland (down $43m).
- The trend was similar across public and private consent figures. Public consents were 39% lower than a year ago, as private consents edged down slower by 26%, reflecting budgetary pressures and a reluctance to commit to investment spending at both a government and business level.
Value of non-residential consents
Annual running total, $b
...and our reaction
- The annual running total of non-residential consent values fell to its lowest level since August 2022, indicating that high interest rates and cost pressures are taking a toll on investor sentiment.
- The hawkish comments from the Reserve Bank recently indicated that interest rates will stay higher for longer. Pressure is likely to remain strong on property values in the near term with our pick for interest rate cuts not until February 2025. Other cost pressures are also hitting property owners, with insurance and local government rates suffering large price hikes.
- Continued weak economic conditions, with unemployment ticking up and low consumer confidence restricting household spending, will plague non-residential consents over the remainder of the year. The tight fiscal environment will continue to weigh on public consent values with little room for large-scale investment.
- The one bright spot in the non-residential figures is that the monthly consent total has settled at about $760m (seasonally adjusted) since August last year. Although a further deterioration in consents is possible due to the factors outlined above, the latest figures suggest that the annual declines could moderate in the second half of this year.
Latest updates
Premium
Non-residential building consents
Warehouses prevent further non-res falls in June
Mon 3 Aug 2026
Monthly
$701m Value of non-res consents in June 2026
7.4% Total non-res consents from May 2026 (seas adj)
37%pa Warehouse consents from June 2025Premium
Non-residential building consents
Non-res consents weaker still in May
Thu 2 Jul 2026
Monthly
$789m Value of non-res consents in May 2026
19% Monthly consents from May 202549% Public sector consents from May 2025Non-residential building consents
Non-res consents mostly softer in April
Wed 3 Jun 2026
Monthly
$655m Value of non-res consents in April 2026
15% Monthly consents from April 2025
Office and education consents at lowest monthly levels in 5-6 yearsNon-residential building consents
Consents strong in March, but shadow of conflict looms
Fri 1 May 2026
Monthly
$862m Value of non-res consents in March 2026
15% Monthly consents from Mar 2025$119m Hostel consents from Mar 2025