Our take on the latest Employment indicators (Mon 29 Jul 2024)
Primary industries filled jobs down
Under-30s filled jobs down
Filled jobs down 0.3% in June quarter (seasonally adjusted)
2.3%pa in June
5.5%pa in June
The key numbers...
- Filled jobs in June 2024 were marginally lower (0.07%, seasonally adjusted) than in May, marking the third consecutive monthly decline after previously positive results for April and May were revised to job declines.
- Annual filled jobs growth, while still just positive, eased to 0.1%pa, the slowest rate since February 2021.
- Growth in filled jobs remains positive in service industries (0.6%pa) while goods-producing industries edged down 1.1%pa. Primary industries declined 2.3%pa, driven by a fall in agriculture, forestry and fishing jobs of 2.7%pa.
- The number of jobs filled by under-30-year-olds has fallen 5.5%pa in June 2024, while jobs filled by over-30-year-olds have risen 1.7%. Jobs filled by over-30s have consistently been growing, but the decline in under-30s jobs has become more pronounced over the past year. The fall in under-30s jobs was driven by a 12.0%pa drop in employment of 15-19-year-olds.
Job numbers likely to keep falling
Monthly filled jobs (millions), seasonally adjusted
...and our reaction
- There are fewer jobs in the economy now than earlier in 2024, as the hit to the labour market becomes more pronounced, a trend we expect to continue, with the unemployment rate set to keep rising.
- Accommodation and food services (i.e. hospitality) has seen a third consecutive month of annual job declines. Retail has seen the largest fall in jobs since this limited series began in mid-2019, down 1.8%pa.
- Construction has also seen the sharpest fall in filled jobs since this series began, with filled jobs down 1.9%pa.
- A number of areas now recording larger job losses indicates the pressure that is now hitting the economy harder, increasing concerns over job security, which will in turn keep spending activity muted.
- With positive job growth still in public administration and safety at 3.6%pa, we are yet to see the full effect of public sector job losses, with some organisations still in the process of restructuring to meet target reductions, which will take time to materialise in the data.
- Expectations of interest rate cuts have increased in the last month, with households and businesses eagerly waiting for the Reserve Bank to ease economic pressures, although job numbers are set to fall further from here before any potential turnaround.
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