Residential building consents

Consents fall, as attached dwellings fall further

31 Jul 2024
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Matthew Allman

Our take on the latest Residential building consents (Wed 31 Jul 2024)

Annual dwelling consents
33,627
Over the year to June 2024
Total consents down 25%pa in year to June 2024
Attached dwelling consents down 28%pa in year to June 2024

The key numbers...

  • There were 2,178 new dwellings consented in June 2024, down 14% from May on a seasonally adjusted basis.
  • Annual consents fell to 33,627 over the year to June 2024, down by 25%pa, and edging below 34,000pa for the first time since January 2019.
  • Townhouse consents in June recorded the lowest monthly total since the start of 2021, contributing to the 19%pa fall in annual townhouse consents. The annual total fell to 15,000pa, a level still well above pre-pandemic levels with current annual townhouse consents having only moderated back to September 2021 levels.
  • Annual standalone house consents continue to hover around the 15,000pa mark and have done since the end of 2023.
  • Annual apartment consents have declined to 1,942, down 52% a year earlier, falling below 2,000pa for the first time since March 2015. Retirement units have seen a similar decline, down 51%pa to the lowest levels since July 2017.
  • At a regional level, all regions saw declines on an annual basis, with Tasman continuing to see the sharpest decline, down 53%pa, followed by Wellington, down 37%pa in the year to June 2024. The next largest declines were seen in Taranaki (down 33%pa), Northland (down 30%pa) and Waikato (down 29%pa). The region to see the smallest decline was Gisborne, down just 1.6%pa.

House consents to bottom-out, non-house continue falling

Consents by dwelling type, annual running total
5030

...and our reaction

  • The annual decline in house consents stopped accelerating at the beginning of the year, and has started to stabilise at around 34,000pa. However, the annual decline in non-house consents is yet to show signs of plateauing, accelerating to -28%pa from -26%pa in the previous month.
  • There is a further downside risk to attached dwelling consents in the near term, with signals that Kāinga Ora might all-but completely pause its building programme.
  • The large falls in attached dwelling consents reflect both tighter funding conditions and the weak housing market, exacerbated by the high base which these build types are declining from. Sentiment around future building intentions should begin to aid the shift from decline to plateauing for residential consents, as retail interest rates fall, and expectations rise for the beginning of Reserve Bank interest rate cuts.
  • We have not shifted our prediction of the first interest rate cut from February 2025, given the mixed messaging from the Reserve Bank’s hawkish May Monetary Policy Statement followed by the about-turn in tone in July. We will reassess our interest rate expectations following the August Statement.

Latest updates

Premium
Residential building consents

Residential consents fall 3.6% in June

Mon 3 Aug 2026
Monthly
40,581 Annual consents over the June 2026 year
19% June 2026 consents over the June 2026 year
3.6% June 2026 consents from May on a seas. adj. basis
Premium
Residential building consents

Residential consents fall 4.0% in May

Thu 2 Jul 2026
Monthly
39,737 Annual consents over May 2026 year
4.0% May 2026 consents from April on a seas. adj. basis
22%pa Townhouse consents over May 2026 year
Residential building consents

Residential consents jump up 11% in April

Wed 3 Jun 2026
Monthly
39,087 Annual consents over April 2026 year
11% April 2026 consents from March on a seas. adj. basis
19%pa Multi-unit consents over April 2026 year
Residential building consents

Residential consent momentum trends sideways

Fri 1 May 2026
Monthly
37,813 Annual consents over March 2026 year
3,300pm Consents trend sideways on a seas. adj. basis
14%pa Townhouse consents over March 2026 year