Employment indicators
Jobs growth remains positive, but shows signs of slowing
28 May 2024
Our take on the latest Employment indicators (Tue 28 May 2024)
Filled jobs up 1.4%pa in April
Primary industries filled jobs down 1.4%pa in April
Under 30’s filled jobs down 4.1%pa in April 2024
The key numbers...
- Filled jobs in April 2024 were 0.1% (seasonally adjusted) higher than in March, remaining positive in every month of the year so far. Annual filled jobs growth slowed to 1.4%pa, the lowest since December 2022.
- Growth in filled jobs has been largely held up by resilience in service industries (2.0%pa). A different story was seen in the remaining two industry categories as goods-producing industries edged down 0.1%pa and primary industries declined 1.4%pa, driven by a decline in agricultural, forestry and fishing of 1.7%pa.
- Jobs filled by under 30-year-olds have fallen 4.1%pa in April 2024, whilst over 30-year-olds has risen 2.8%. Jobs filled by over-30s have consistently been growing strongly, however, the decline in under-30s jobs has deepened over the past year, indicative of a “brain-drain”.
Jobs growth continues to moderate in April
Filled jobs, annual % change
...and our reaction
- Employment growth remains positive, although we are seeing a slower growth as filled jobs edged up moderately to 2.41m in April 2024. Growth in the year to April 2024 was driven by surging job numbers in health care (5.7%) which contributed to 45% of the growth in filled jobs. Buoyant growth in transport and warehousing (6.5%), and utilities (5.7%) also contributed to the rise. Many other industries showed significant signs of slowing, administrative services (-3.7%), agriculture (-1.7%), professional services (-1.6%) and accommodation (-0.3%). Falling numbers of administrative services filled jobs reflects slowing labour hire services and expectations of general labour market weakness. Reduced agricultural, forestry and fishing filled jobs reflect poor meat and log prices.
- The Minister of Finance revealed yesterday that the public sector job losses total 2,250 roles with an additional 1,150 vacancies which will not be filled, and an additional 500 roles expected to go. We have seen the job cuts in the headlines in recent months, but it is important to reiterate that although ballpark figures have been announced, many of the job losses have not flowed through to filled job numbers. These numbers will likely come through after consultation periods within government departments have finished and notice periods have been given to employees. However, given the scale of the public sector, job cuts of this magnitude are unlikely to make a large dent in the aggregate figure.
- We have recently seen a surge in the number of New Zealand Citizens heading overseas, reaching a record-high in the year to March 2024. The “brain-drain” to countries which have higher salaries in many industries could contribute to slower growth in high-skilled industries in the medium term.
- We expect slower wage growth throughout the remainder of 2024 as continued dampened economic conditions limit businesses need for additional employees and less job opportunities reduce current employees’ ability to negotiate large pay increases.
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