Our take on the latest Residential building consents (Thu 30 May 2024)
Annual dwelling consents
35,401
As of April 2024
Total consents up 6.0% from April 2023
Trends in consents remain subdued but appear to be stabilising
The key numbers...
- There were 2,926 new dwellings consented in April 2024, up 6.0% from a year earlier. This lift was the first annual increase in 19 months.
- However, the timing of Easter, which mostly occurred in March this year, means that April’s result is probably not as strong as it appears at first glance. Total consents across March and April combined were still down 13% from a year earlier.
- Among this month-to-month volatility, standalone house consents continue to show signs of stabilising at around 15,000pa. House consents across the last two months were down just 3.8% from a year ago, the least negative result in over two years.
- The declines in townhouse consent numbers are also showing signs of moderating, with consent numbers in April just 2.5% lower than a year ago. Three of the last four months have seen annual falls of less than 10% in townhouse consents, after falls of 15-20%pa throughout most of 2023.
- Apartment consents continue free falling, down by 38% from April last year. The annual total of 2,129 consents is the lowest since May 2016. Retirement units were up from a year ago for the first time in six months, but the annual consent total remains close to its lowest level since 2017.
Early signs of stabilisation in consents?
New dwelling consents issued annual running total
...and our reaction
- We are cautious about reading too much into the latest month’s data, given that the additional working days in April this year have resulted in higher consent numbers.
- However, the stabilising consent numbers for houses and, to a lesser extent, townhouses, are consistent with our expectation of less downward pressure on consents as 2024 progresses. We expect consents to stabilise by mid-year as high net migration leads to increased buyer enquiry levels for new homes.
- The continued flatlining of apartments and retirement units reflects tighter funding conditions, greater risk, and the more interest-rate sensitive nature of these building types.
- Lacklustre economic growth and limited declines in mortgage rates will impede any significant lift in consent numbers, and we expect slowing population growth to drag the annual consent total below 32,800pa by the end of 2025.
- We will also be closely monitoring any changes in government policies around resource consents that may impact numbers over the months ahead.
Latest updates
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Residential building consents
Residential consents fall 3.6% in June
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40,581 Annual consents over the June 2026 year
19% June 2026 consents over the June 2026 year
3.6% June 2026 consents from May on a seas. adj. basisPremium
Residential building consents
Residential consents fall 4.0% in May
Thu 2 Jul 2026
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39,737 Annual consents over May 2026 year4.0% May 2026 consents from April on a seas. adj. basis22%pa Townhouse consents over May 2026 yearResidential building consents
Residential consents jump up 11% in April
Wed 3 Jun 2026
Monthly
39,087 Annual consents over April 2026 year11% April 2026 consents from March on a seas. adj. basis19%pa Multi-unit consents over April 2026 yearResidential building consents
Residential consent momentum trends sideways
Fri 1 May 2026
Monthly
37,813 Annual consents over March 2026 year
3,300pm Consents trend sideways on a seas. adj. basis14%pa Townhouse consents over March 2026 year