Our take on the latest Tourism data (Thu 15 Feb 2024)
Monthly foreign tourist arrivals
418,869
In December 2023
Arrivals ease slightly to 79% of pre-pandemic levels
Australian arrivals edge down to 82% of pre-pandemic levels
The key numbers...
- There were 418,869 foreign tourist arrivals in December 2023, seeing the recovery from pre-pandemic levels ease to 79% in December from 82% in November.
- Australian arrivals eased from 84% of pre-pandemic levels in November, to 82% in December.
- Arrivals from China has also stalled, rising just one percentage point to 53% of pre-pandemic levels in December.
- The recovery of arrivals from most other major markets remained stagnant. December arrivals were a lower proportion of pre-pandemic levels across North America, the United Kingdom, Germany, and India.
- Kiwi departures overseas eased to 93% of pre-pandemic levels in December from 98% in November. The recovery of departures has been lumpy over the past few months but is considerably stronger than at the beginning of 2023.
Global economic slowdown weighs on tourism recovery
Monthly tourism arrivals, % of pre-pandemic (2019) levels
...and our reaction
- The recovery of tourist arrivals remained sluggish in December, with stagnating results across our major markets.
- China’s worsening economic outlook will continue to weigh on New Zealand’s tourism recovery over 2024, with the pace of recovery not showing any signs of a pick-up.
- Excluding Australia and China, foreign tourist arrivals fell from 85% of pre-pandemic levels in November, to 80% in December, pointing to a slowdown across the world.
- The effects of tighter monetary policy will continue to moderate global economic growth over the next year. This high interest rate environment makes the last portion of New Zealand’s tourism recovery especially challenging.
- December is the strongest month usually for tourists to visit New Zealand, and December 2023 was still the first time that monthly arrivals topped 400,000 since the pandemic occurred. But the consistent trend of around 80% of pre-pandemic arrivals doesn’t appear to be changing any time soon.
- Similarly, Kiwi departures are under some downward pressure from high interest rates and tougher economic conditions.
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