Real estate statistics

House prices rise for sixth consecutive month in November

Our take on the latest Real estate statistics (Wed 13 Dec 2023)

Nationwide house prices up 0.5% from October (seas adj)
Sales up 0.8% from October (seas adj)
Median period to sell remains at 38 days

The key numbers...

  • Nationwide house prices rose 0.5% in November (seasonally adjusted), with a stronger increase in Auckland (0.7%) than the rest of New Zealand (0.3%).
  • Annual house price growth in Auckland turned positive for the first time 18 months, with prices up 0.4% from November 2022. Southland, Canterbury, and West Coast also have higher house prices than a year ago.
  • Seasonally adjusted data shows that sales activity in November was down 12% from September this year, as October’s slowdown in sales continued.
  • The median sales period remained at 38 days in November, although the rate of turnover normally accelerates throughout spring. November’s result is down 20% from its February 2023 peak on a seasonally adjusted basis. 

     

House prices continue to pick up

REINZ house price index, seasonally adjusted, Jan-19 = 1,000
4768

...and our reaction

  • Nationwide house prices rose for a sixth consecutive month in November (seasonally adjusted), affirming that momentum in the housing market has well and truly shifted.
  • The weaker sales results in October and November could be due to potential buyers waiting to see how the election result would play out. However, affordability could also be continuing to limit housing market activity.
  • Easing wholesale interest rates over the past few weeks could potentially take some pressure out of mortgage rates, but firm signals from the Reserve Bank that the OCR will stay higher for longer (or even tick up slightly) means that rates are unlikely to come down anytime soon.
  • The housing market outlook is positive going into 2024, with the new government looking to shorten the bright-line test for investors and reinstate mortgage interest deductibility. Record high migration will also boost demand for housing. However, the scope for price growth is still limited by the weakening labour market and persistent affordability challenges.