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Residential building consents

Smaller fall but dwelling consents still declining

30 Nov 2023

Our take on the latest Residential building consents (Thu 30 Nov 2023)

Annual dwelling consents

39,900

As at October 2023

Consents down 14% from October 2022

Auckland consents down 36%pa in last three months

The key numbers...

Dwelling consent numbers in October were down 14% from a year ago, which was the smallest annual decline since January. However, the annual consent total is now below 40,000 for the first time since February 2021.
After adjusting for seasonal effects, October’s consent total was up 8.8% from September, reinforcing that the latest month’s result was less negative than in previous months.
Standalone house consents last month were down 19% from October 2022, which was an improvement from the declines of more than 30% during the last three months.
Sharp declines in house consents of more than 25%pa continued in Hawke’s Bay, Bay of Plenty, Manawatū-Whanganui, Canterbury, Waikato, and Otago. In contrast, Northland, Taranaki, Nelson, and Marlborough issued more house consents in October than a year ago.
Apartment and retirement unit consent numbers were both higher than in October last year. Apartment numbers were boosted by a record high month for consents in Canterbury (123), while Auckland, Wellington, and Canterbury accounted for over three-quarters of retirement units.
The 16%pa fall in townhouse consents was the biggest annual drop since early 2012. Townhouse consents in Auckland for the three months to October were down by 26%pa, and Wellington and Waikato also made significant contributions to the weaker October result.

Auckland's consents now falling faster

New dwelling consents, year-end % change

4764

...and our reaction

Although October’s result is less negative than figures throughout the September quarter, the trend of weaker consent numbers continues to be in line with our forecasts.
Auckland’s 36%pa decline in consents over the three months to October is the region’s biggest fall since early 2009, at the height of the Global Financial Crisis. However, levels of construction activity will be holding up better for now given the backlog of consents awaiting completion.
Record-high net migration is boosting housing demand and leading to a pick-up in house prices and rents. Although we believe migration is close to peaking, if it persists at very high levels, it could put a floor under demand and start to stimulate more residential activity by the second half of 2024. These upside risks are most pronounced in Auckland, where a large proportion of new immigrants initially settle.
At this stage, we continue to expect the residential consent total to ease towards 34,000pa by the end of next year.

Latest updates

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Residential building consents

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39,737 Annual consents over May 2026 year

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22%pa Townhouse consents over May 2026 year

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39,087 Annual consents over April 2026 year

11% April 2026 consents from March on a seas. adj. basis

19%pa Multi-unit consents over April 2026 year

Residential building consents

Residential consent momentum trends sideways

37,813 Annual consents over March 2026 year

3,300pm Consents trend sideways on a seas. adj. basis

14%pa Townhouse consents over March 2026 year