Residential building consents

Dwelling consent numbers in freefall

31 Oct 2023
Gareth Kiernan's-profile-photo
Gareth Kiernan

Our take on the latest Residential building consents (Tue 31 Oct 2023)

Annual dwelling consents
40,408
As at September 2023
Total consents down 31% from Sep 2022 quarter
Auckland consents down 34% from Sep 2022 quarter

The key numbers...

  • Consents for 2,898 new dwellings were issued in September, down a massive 37% from September last year. This annual decline was the largest since 2009, when the industry was hit by the Global Financial Crisis.
  • After adjusting for the usual seasonal pattern, last month’s consent number was the lowest in almost five years (excluding the lockdown-affected months of March and April 2020).
  • The weak result was partly caused by a lower number of attached dwelling consents. Retirement unit consents totalled just 90 in September, the third-weakest month in the last five years. The number of apartment consents was 204, down 74% from the strong September 2022 result of 778 apartment consents.
  • Townhouse consent numbers were down 17% from a year ago, falling at a pace consistent with declines over the previous six months.
  • The number of consents in the last three months was lower than a year ago across every region, the first time a drop has been recorded across the entire country since 2009. The least negative regions were Bay of Plenty and West Coast, recording falls of 7-9%pa, but consent numbers in Northland, Nelson, and Tasman are declining by over 40%pa.

Consents fall at their fastest in 14 years

New dwelling consents, three-month annual % changes
4754

...and our reaction

  • Residential consent numbers remain under massive downward pressure, with the September quarter total coming in almost 500 dwellings below the estimate contained in our most recent forecasts.
  • Firms throughout the industry are still generally reporting relatively good demand for materials, reflecting the backlog of previous consents still being completed. However, once this pipeline has been worked through, a downturn in demand will become sharply apparent.
  • Although townhouse consent numbers are declining, they are still holding up better than consents for standalone houses. Renewed house price rises and the negative implications for housing affordability are likely to continue pushing buyer demand towards townhouses.
  • We expect falls in consent numbers to persist throughout 2024 and into 2025, but strong net migration and recent upward momentum in the housing market could help slow the declines next year.

Latest updates

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Residential building consents

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Mon 3 Aug 2026
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40,581 Annual consents over the June 2026 year
19% June 2026 consents over the June 2026 year
3.6% June 2026 consents from May on a seas. adj. basis
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Residential building consents

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Thu 2 Jul 2026
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39,737 Annual consents over May 2026 year
4.0% May 2026 consents from April on a seas. adj. basis
22%pa Townhouse consents over May 2026 year
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Residential consents jump up 11% in April

Wed 3 Jun 2026
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39,087 Annual consents over April 2026 year
11% April 2026 consents from March on a seas. adj. basis
19%pa Multi-unit consents over April 2026 year
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Residential consent momentum trends sideways

Fri 1 May 2026
Monthly
37,813 Annual consents over March 2026 year
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14%pa Townhouse consents over March 2026 year