Tourism data

Women’s World Cup boosts tourist arrivals

12 Sept 2023

Gareth Kiernan

Our take on the latest Tourism data (Tue 12 Sept 2023)

Tourist arrivals steady at 84% of pre-COVID levels

US arrivals about 13,800 above normal due to World Cup

But Australian arrivals slip to 79% of pre-pandemic levels

The key numbers...

The 2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup had a noticeable effect on tourist arrival numbers in July. We estimate that arrivals were higher for the month by about 16,500 people, or 8.5%, than if the tournament had not taken place.
By far the biggest effect was seen in arrivals from the US, which were up 11,400 from their June level, corresponding to a lift from 82% to 162% of pre-pandemic arrival numbers in 2019. We estimate this result was equivalent to an additional 13,800 arrivals from the US due to the World Cup.
The other most significant effects were recorded in arrivals from the Philippines and Japan, which were both about 1,000 higher than might have been expected without the tournament. Japan’s arrival numbers lifted from 60% to 72% of pre-pandemic levels, while arrivals from the Philippines reached 160% of their pre-pandemic result in July 2019.
Despite the boost to arrivals from the World Cup, total arrival numbers were steady at 84% of their pre-pandemic level in July. Excluding the 15 countries with teams based in New Zealand for the World Cup, this figure dropped from 84% in June to 77% in July.
Australian arrival numbers slipped from 89% of pre-pandemic levels in June to 79% in July. This dip could be due to a slight change in timing of Australian school holidays between 2019 and 2023, with this year favouring more arrivals in June. The July result is in line with a steady proportion of Australian arrivals at about 80% of pre-pandemic levels between January and May this year.
Chinese arrival numbers reached a new post-COVID high of 56% of 2019 levels, up from 31% in May. This continuing recovery is positive for New Zealand’s tourism industry, and is heartening given ongoing concerns about the underlying strength of the Chinese economy.

Mixed results for tourist arrivals in July

Monthly tourism arrivals, % of pre-pandemic (2019) levels

...and our reaction

The boost to tourist numbers from the World Cup is a one-off. It will have provided welcome additional revenue to hospitality providers during July and early August. However, the figures suggest a plateauing in the underlying trend for arrivals in July following strengthening activity during May and June.
Notwithstanding June’s higher result, Australian arrivals appear to have stagnated at about 80% of pre-pandemic levels. Further sustained increases are unlikely without additional declines in airfares or a significant improvement in households’ financial positions, through either lower interest rates or a brighter economic outlook.
China is shaping up as the most likely market for further increases in arrivals over the rest of 2023, given its pick-up in visitor numbers has lagged other countries in the wake of the pandemic. Some other Asian and European countries also have scope for further recovery in coming months, but their contributions will be smaller than the potential lift from the large Chinese market.
In general, high airfares and a weak economic outlook look set to limit further increases in tourist numbers, compared to pre-pandemic levels, throughout the rest of this year and into 2024.

Latest updates

Premium

Tourism data

Women’s World Cup boosts tourist arrivals

The key numbers...

Mixed results for tourist arrivals in July

...and our reaction

Latest updates

Visitor arrivals slip but broader recovery continues

Visitor arrivals up 8.0%pa, driven by China

Tourism recovery continues despite Iran War

Chinese visitors boost arrivals in February