Our take on the latest Car registrations (Fri 1 Sept 2023)
Total first-time registrations back to 86% of pre-change monthly average
New registrations only at 64% of pre-change monthly average
Strong gains for hybrid vehicle registrations
The key numbers...
- There were 15,714 first-time car registrations in August, a 45% increase from July after accounting for seasonal effects. Total new first time registrations (seasonally adjusted) rose back to 86% of the monthly average over Jan-May 2023, before changes to the Clean Car Discount altered trends for June and July.
- The recovery in registrations was primarily driven by higher used car registrations, which increased 44% from July (seasonally adjusted), totalling 8,730 in August. Used car registrations in August (seasonally adjusted) were back to 98% of Jan-May 2023 average monthly levels.
- New car registrations remained soft in August, with 6,984 cars registered in the month, a 9.9% increase from July after accounting for seasonal effects and leaving new registrations at only 64% of pre-change average monthly levels.
- Registrations of petrol and diesel-powered cars remain lower, with August registrations sitting 41% and 36%pa lower respectively than a year ago. However, plug-in hybrid and non plug-in hybrid electric car registrations increased 21% and 51%pa respectively. Registrations of full battery electric cars fell 56%pa in August.
Car registrations back up, but not to normal
Monthly registrations, passenger vehicles
...and our reaction
- Car registrations lifted in August, but remained soft compared to typical registrations just before the Clean Car Discount scheme settings were tightened on 1 July.
- The changes to the Discount scheme continued to hit registrations of new cars harder than used cars in August, as the comparatively lower benefits for registering a lower emissions car means people are less incentivised to purchase newer cars.
- Registrations in June were inflated by strong pre-purchasing to maximise the benefits under the old Clean Car Discount scheme settings, so we expect some softness to continue over the next few months as many would-be purchasers moved their registration forward.
- Although we expect car registrations to recover further from here, they could still be weighed down by the tougher economic conditions anticipated over the rest of the year, with higher interest rates and still-high inflation weighing on buyers’ willingness and ability to purchase cars.
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