Non-residential building consents

Softer hospital consents keep a lid on growth

Our take on the latest Non-residential building consents (Tue 1 Aug 2023)

Value of non-res consents
$764m
In June 2023
Private consents up 15% in three months to June
Hospital consents ease to $55m

The key numbers...

  • The value of non-residential building consents issued in June 2023 totalled $764m, up 17% from June 2022. However, after accounting for both seasonal patterns and building cost inflation, this result was 3.1% below the average value over the previous six months.
  • There was $161m of factory consents, with consents up 94%pa over the three months to June. The total was boosted by an $80m consent for? a new data centre in Auckland.
  • Retail consents totalled $121m, with a further $75m consented in June for the new IKEA building in Mt. Wellington, Auckland. The value of retail consents is now up 101%pa over the three months to June.
  • Hospital consents notched down to $55m in June, well below the $110m monthly average over the first five months of 2023. This result brought hospital building’s share of total consent values from 19% in May to just 7% in June.
  • Momentum was generally stronger across private consents in June, with private consent values lifting 15% over the three-months to June after falling 1% in the three months to May. Conversely, growth in public consents eased from 35%pa over the three months to May, to 14% over the three months to June.
  • The Canterbury Region remains New Zealand’s primary driver of consent values. Annual consent values grew $381m over the year to June 2023, making Canterbury responsible for over a third of the country’s $976m annual consent value growth.

Real consent growth fairly muted

Annual running total ($b), adjusted for building-cost inflation
4658

...and our reaction

  • Some momentum appears to be coming out of several building types, particularly hospitals and education consents, as several large projects come to completion. Construction of hospitals is expected to peak around September 2023.
  • Although June was a particularly strong month for private consents, growth over the last few months is largely the result of upgrades to Auckland Airport (including a redeveloped domestic terminal, and a new retail centre) rather than a widespread uptick.
  • With several major projects still in the pipeline, construction activity is expected to continue growing over the remainder of 2023. However, as these projects reach completion and the private sector faces persistently high interest rates, new consents are likely to remain subdued.
  • Government funded education and health infrastructure investment as announced in the 2023 Budget presents an upside to our outlook.