Car registrations
Lowest car registrations since Lockdown due to Discount changes
2 Aug 2023
Our take on the latest Car registrations (Wed 2 Aug 2023)
First-time car registrations plummet 69% from June (seasonally adjusted)
New car registrations hit harder than used car registrations
Petrol car registrations down 56%pa, full BEVs down 33%
The key numbers...
- Only 10,844 cars were registered for the first time in July 2023, the lowest monthly total since the COVID-19 Level 4 lockdown in April 2020. Before then, the next lowest monthly total was recorded in April 2011.
- Adjusting for seasonal effects, total car registrations were down 69% from June’s bumper month, and down around 42% below the average of the first five months of 2023.
- In July, new car registrations were 43% lower than the average over the first five months of 2023, compared to just a 26% drop on the same basis for used cars.
- Petrol vehicles saw the largest reduction in registrations, down 54% below the average of the first five months of 2023. All vehicle types also saw declines, albeit of a less severe magnitude, with diesels down 38%, full BEVs down 33%, PHEVs down 19%, and non plug-in hybrids down 17%.
Pre-purchasing spike followed by a plunge in car registrations
Total monthly car registrations, seasonally adjusted
...and our reaction
- History has repeated, after the large amount of pre-purchasing of cars in the June 2023 month has been followed by a substantial fall in July as a consequence of the major changes to the Clean Car Discount and the introduction of the Clean Car Standard.
- Changes to the Clean Car Discount scheme at the start of July have reduced the rebate or increased the fee by as much as $3,418 for new cars and $1,466 for used vehicles.
- The larger hit to new cars reflects the larger dollar value increase in fees and reduction in the rebate offered for lower emissions vehicles. The original introduction of the Clean Car Discount saw used car registrations influenced substantially more than new cars, as the additional fees on used vehicles drove purchasing decisions. This time, as the market had adjusted to and priced in the prior settings, the larger dollar value shift in fees and rebates for new vehicles appears to have influenced purchasing decisions.
- The high level of pre-purchasing in June, and the larger drop in July (a larger drop than the original introduction of the Clean Car Discount) means that we expect registrations to be weaker over the next 6-9 months.
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