Our take on the latest Employment indicators (Fri 28 Jul 2023)
Filled jobs up 0.4% in June (seasonally adjusted)
Employment of 25-29-year-olds up 0.4%pa
Filled jobs in service industries up 4.2%pa
The key numbers...
- Filled jobs rose 0.4% in June from May (seasonally adjusted), driven by a particularly strong lift in employment across both goods-producing and services industries.
- This result lifted annual filled jobs growth to 3.7%pa. Annual filled jobs growth in services industries picked up to 4.2%pa, the strongest result in over 15 years. Annual filled jobs growth in goods-producing industries accelerated to 3.2%pa in June, the strongest result since early 2022.
- The accommodation and food services industry continued to lead jobs growth in June, expanding by an addition 12,300 jobs from June 2022. The health care industry grew by 9,700 jobs, and there were also significant increases in education (9,500) and public administration (8,300) jobs.
- Filled jobs in agriculture, forestry, and fishing were down by 2,900 from June 2022, shrinking employment across primary industries by 2.1%pa.
- Employment in the 25-29-year-old age group saw its strongest result since early 2020, lifting 0.4%pa in June. Filled jobs growth in this group only turned positive in April after two years of sustained declines.
- Growth in earnings per filled job continued to slow from its 8.1%pa February 2022 peak, easing to 5.8%pa in June. However, wage pressures remain elevated, with earnings growth in June still around two percentage points higher than pre-pandemic (June 2019).
Filled jobs keep rising
Monthly filled jobs, seasonally adjusted
...and our reaction
- Employment growth in June was in line with growth over the past few months. Annual growth in health, education, and public administration job numbers has accelerated over the past few months, while growth in accommodation and food services employment has slowed from its March 2023 peak.
- Further expansion of the immigration Green List in April to include a wider variety of health workers, such as pharmacists, dentists, and counsellors, is likely to be boosting filled jobs in the industry. The government’s continual additions to the Green List suggests that growth in health care is due to the filling of acute labour shortages, rather than an expansion of the industry’s desired capacity.
- The influx of migrant workers is continuing to help ease wage pressures by reducing competition for workers. Growth in jobs among 25-29 year olds is also being supported by this influx.
- Although migrant arrival numbers remain massively elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels, some momentum is beginning to come out of immigration. We expect annual net migration will peak by late 2023. Fewer opportunities as skill shortages are filled is expected to moderate annual net migration to around 30,000 by early 2025.
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