Non-residential building consents

Hospital consents continue to lead growth

Our take on the latest Non-residential building consents (Mon 3 Jul 2023)

Value of non-res consents
$1,174m
In May 2023
Public consents up 35%pa in three months to May
Annual hospital consents reach $1,590m

The key numbers...

  • Non-residential building consents to the value of $1,174m were issued in May 2023, up 13% from May last year. After accounting for seasonal patterns and stripping out building cost inflation, this result was the strongest in 12 months.
  • There was $224m of hospital consents in May, with consents up 184%pa over the three months to May 2023. Boosting the consent total in May were a $112m consent as part of Dunedin Hospital and a $29m consent for a mental health facility in Rotorua.
  • Retail consents totalled $185m in May and grew by 55%pa over the three months to May. Activity was bolstered by a $72m consent for part of Auckland Airport’s 120-store shopping centre and $36m as part of IKEA’s new three-storey building in Mt Wellington.
  • Education consents totalled $229m in May, boosted by a $127m consent for a building at the University of Otago campus in Christchurch.
  • The Canterbury and Waikato regions continued to drive growth in overall consent values, lifting by $352m and $262m respectively over the year to May 2023.
  • The value of private consents fell 1%pa over the three months to May, the first negative three-month result since November 2021. However, public consents have gained further momentum, growing 35%pa over the three months to May.

Public consents driving growth

Annual running total, $m
4583

...and our reaction

  • Continually subdued private consents suggest that high interest rates are having the desired effect of limiting investment. The stronger retail result in the latest month is largely a result of two specific projects, rather than any indication of a widespread pick-up in retail confidence or investment.
  • Strength in health infrastructure investment was maintained in May. The value of hospital consents is expected to peak in late 2023, and flatten out over the medium-term as large projects come to completion. 
  • ANZ Business Outlook’s figures indicated the commercial construction confidence was positive in June after eight months of consistently negative results. Although we estimate that three-month annual growth in the volume of consents remains relatively subdued, at 2.3%, consents are likely to be ahead of our expectations for the June quarter, indicating that the pipeline of activity is still expanding.