Our take on the latest Car registrations (Mon 1 May 2023)
First-time car registrations down 14% in April (seasonally adjusted)
Small car registrations down 27% from March (seasonally adjusted)
Petrol-powered car registrations down 51%pa in the three months ended April
The key numbers...
- There were 15,006 first-time car registrations in April, a 14% decline from March after accounting for seasonal factors.
- Registrations of both new and used cars fell from March, down 21% and 1.3% respectively (both figures seasonally adjusted).
- Small car registrations fell sharply in April, down 27%, while large car registrations edged up 0.8% (both figures seasonally adjusted).
- There were 367 new rental cars registered in April, a large decline from March, when nearly 1,400 rentals were registered. However, registrations of new rental cars were still 208% higher in April 2023, compared to the average of rental registrations in April 2017, 2018, and 2019.
- Cars solely powered by internal combustion engines continued to decline markedly, with registrations of petrol- and diesel-powered cars down 51% and 46%pa respectively in the three months to April.
- Registrations of non-plug-in hybrid electric and full-battery electric cars were up 61% and 27%pa respectively for the three months to April.
- Surprisingly, registrations of plug-in hybrid electric cars have softened over the last 4-5 months, with registrations in the three months to April down 15%pa.
New and small car registrations decline from high base
First-time car registrations, annual running total
...and our reaction
- Registrations of new cars and small cars have both softened recently, with new car registrations down from the previous month in seven out of the last 10 months, and small car registrations down in six of the last 10 months (after adjusting for seasonal factors).
- However, recently monthly declines are minor in comparison to the growth of the new and small segments of the car market in late 2021 and throughout 2022.
- We anticipate these trends will continue. The relatively more affordable new and small car segments will keep softening as economic conditions become more challenging, but remain elevated on pre-pandemic and pre-Discount levels – particularly when compared to other economic downturns such as 2008/09.
- The same can be said of rental car registrations. Although new rental car registrations fell sharply in April from the previous month, they were still highly elevated compared to a typical pre-pandemic April.
- Tourist arrivals have plateaued in recent months, so it seems less likely that monthly rental car registrations will remain elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels for much longer.
- We anticipate the government’s upcoming Budget, to be released on 18 May, will provide more certainty around transport policy settings for the immediate future. There has been much discussion about the future of the fuel excise reduction, road user charges discount, and Clean Car Discount scheme in recent weeks.
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