Non-residential building consents
Strong month for private sector lifts non-residential construction
30 Mar 2023
Our take on the latest Non-residential building consents (Thu 30 Mar 2023)
Value of non-res consents
$835m
In February 2023
Public consents down 48%pa in February
Annual warehouse consents reach $1.6b
The key numbers...
- The value of non-residential building consents in February rose 49% from last month (seasonally adjusted), more than reversing out the 25% decline in January.
- The 17%pa increase in total consent values from February 2022 was driven largely by warehouse consents, which totalled $205m. There was also $115m of office consents, $102m of education consents, and $93m of retail consents.
- Warehouse consents were $95m (87%pa) higher than in February 2022, boosted by an $80m consent in Hamilton for a Maersk cool store. Factory consents also rose by more than $15m in both Christchurch and Selwyn. Social and cultural consents grew by $47m (104%pa), with a $65m consent in February for the new Waikato Regional Theatre, also in Hamilton.
- Despite a strong result this month, overall consent growth is tapering, with a 13% increase in non-residential values over the year to February 2023, compared to a 19% increase in the year to February 2022.
- Recently, public consents have been softening more rapidly than private, with public consents down 12%pa in the three months to February. Softening public consents come as education and hospital consents decline, with a $64m fall in education consents from February 2022 (down $44m in Invercargill, and $14m in Dunedin) and a $33m decline in hospital consents (down $33m in Invercargill, $30m in Queenstown-Lakes, and $13m in Hamilton).
Public consents turning down
Annual running total, $m
...and our reaction
- February was a surprisingly strong month for private sector work, given the deteriorating outlook for non-residential construction. Private consents have risen 25%pa over the six months to February, bucking the trend of continually easing growth since late 2022. For comparison, public consents fell 13%pa over the last six months.
- This month’s private sector figure was boosted heavily by the storage facility consent in Hamilton, but growth in office, farm, and hotel consents maintained downwards momentum. We expect that high interest rates and construction costs will continue to subdue private activity going forward.
- Our forecasts indicate that government spending will continue to ease over the next year, turning negative from mid-2024 to early-2025. We expect this will significantly narrow the pipeline of public non-residential construction going into 2024/25, although hospital construction is likely to be an area of sustained strength for public sector activity.
- We estimate there could be a limited amount of repair and building work following the recent flooding, to the tune of around $650m over the next two years, mostly concentrated in the Auckland region. We will continue to monitor incoming information as to the extent of flooding and cyclone damage, and update our estimates accordingly.
Latest updates
Premium
Non-residential building consents
Warehouses prevent further non-res falls in June
Mon 3 Aug 2026
Monthly
$701m Value of non-res consents in June 2026
7.4% Total non-res consents from May 2026 (seas adj)
37%pa Warehouse consents from June 2025Premium
Non-residential building consents
Non-res consents weaker still in May
Thu 2 Jul 2026
Monthly
$789m Value of non-res consents in May 2026
19% Monthly consents from May 202549% Public sector consents from May 2025Non-residential building consents
Non-res consents mostly softer in April
Wed 3 Jun 2026
Monthly
$655m Value of non-res consents in April 2026
15% Monthly consents from April 2025
Office and education consents at lowest monthly levels in 5-6 yearsNon-residential building consents
Consents strong in March, but shadow of conflict looms
Fri 1 May 2026
Monthly
$862m Value of non-res consents in March 2026
15% Monthly consents from Mar 2025$119m Hostel consents from Mar 2025