Our take on the latest Residential building consents (Thu 12 Jan 2023)
Annual dwelling consents
50,209
As of November 2022
Townhouses growth slows to 8.0%pa over last three months
Standalone house consents down 19%pa over last three months
The key numbers...
- Residential dwelling consents partly bounced back in November after a weak October result, but remain down 0.9% from a year ago, reinforcing previous views of weakening consent figures.
- Standalone house consent numbers continue to fall, down 14%pa in the November 2022 month, taking the three-month decline to 19%pa.
- Townhouse consents continue to lessen the blow to consents, with the 1,827 consents producing a further 2.7%pa increase in November. However, growth in townhouses is moderating. Over the three months to November, growth was 8.0%pa, compared to 76%pa growth over the three months to April 2022.
- There were 450 retirement units consented in November 2022, the highest monthly total on record, with annual consents rising to just below 3,000.
- Despite a 9.2% boost in monthly apartment consents, growth in this building type remains limited, with just a 2.0% gain in apartment consents over the 12 months to November 2022.
- Alterations are now slowly in decline, with a 2.7%pa fall in the value of alterations and additions for the three months to November. The decline in the volume of alterations and additions consents will be closer to 20%pa once building cost inflation is taken into account.
Heading higher, but more slowly
Townhouse consents, annual running totals
...and our reaction
- Residential consents continue to ease, as construction delays, higher interest rates, lower house prices, and higher building costs all change the equation for developers.
- Standalone houses are driving the decline, with November being the ninth month where standalone houses have fallen on an annual basis. However, the decline in standalone houses is an orderly one, with annual drops over the last six months averaging around 20%pa.
- Townhouses have been a bright spot across construction in recent times, with the annual total of townhouses consented nearly doubling in two years. However, townhouse consents look like they are near to peaking, with annual growth slowing considerably in recent months after stronger gains earlier in 2022.
- The record level of retirement units consented in November, taking the annual total to the highest level on record too, indicates the recovery in retirement village development work after plans were frozen or scaled back in 2020. However, high costs and construction bottlenecks could scupper this revival.
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