Real estate statistics
Soaring interest rates keep housing market plunging
13 Dec 2022
Our take on the latest Real estate statistics (Tue 13 Dec 2022)
House prices down 14% from November 2021
House sales lowest since 2010, excluding lockdown
Auckland house prices down 2.2% (seasonally adjusted) from October
The key numbers...
- House sales fell 14% (seasonally adjusted) in November to be 36% down from a year ago. Excluding COVID-affected months, this drop was the sharpest decline since early 2008.
- Monthly house sales had been steady around the 5,200 mark in the past few months, but sales fell to 4,180 last month, and have not been lower since late 2010.
- New Zealand house prices fell 1.6% (seasonally adjusted) in November, and they are now down 14% from their peak in November 2021.
- House price falls continue to be largest in Auckland and Wellington, where prices are down by 18% and 20%pa respectively. Every region recorded lower prices in November than a year ago, with annual price growth in Northland and Southland turning negative in the last month.
House prices continue to fall
Monthly % change, seasonally adjusted, REINZ House Price Index
...and our reaction
- Rising interest rates continue to put downward pressure on house prices, with all mortgage rates in November sitting above 6%, for the first time since February 2011.
- Auckland’s 0.4% price increase in October appears to have been more of an anomaly than the emergence of any stabilisation in prices. Auckland’s monthly result for November was a 2.2% fall (seasonally adjusted), in line with persistent monthly declines since late 2021.
- Expectations of further interest rate rises continued to be revised up, and we now forecast that all mortgage rates will climb above 7.2% by mid-2023. These rate increases will continue to increase debt-servicing costs and keep buyers out of the market, depressing sales volumes and pulling house prices down further.
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