Our take on the latest Car registrations (Wed 2 Nov 2022)
Car registrations fell 0.6% in October (seasonally adjusted)
Registrations of small cars up 60%pa in three months to October
Rental car registrations at 55% of pre-pandemic levels
The key numbers...
- There were 18,012 cars registered in October, a 0.6% decline from September after adjusting for seasonal effects and a 9.4% drop from October last year.
- New car registrations totalled 10,772 in October, a 0.5% fall from September once seasonally adjusted, but up 17% from a year ago.
- The 7,240 used car registrations last month was broadly in line with seasonally adjusted sales volumes over the previous six months, but 32% lower than in October last year.
- In the three months to October, small car registrations increased 60% from August-October 2021. In contrast, large car registrations fell by 19%pa over the same period.
- There were 2,456 rental cars registered in October, up from 1,559 in September, and the largest monthly total since December 2019. Despite this increase, rental car registrations represented a smaller proportion of pre-pandemic levels (2017-2019 average) than the previous month, at 55%. October is generally the strongest month of the year and has recorded the largest monthly total for rental registrations in eight of the last 10 years.
- Registrations of hybrid and electric vehicles remain strong, with 25,660 full battery electric vehicles or plug-in hybrid vehicles registered in the year to October, a 140% increase from the year to October 2021.
Rentals just over half of pre-pandemic levels in October
October rental car registrations, monthly total
...and our reaction
- Rental car registrations were slightly weaker than anticipated in October, and this softness is reflected in the decline in new car registrations. Historically, strong rental car registration numbers have boosted total new car registration numbers in October.
- The effects of the Clean Car Discount scheme are persisting, with registrations of small cars growing strongly, while registrations of larger vehicles fall. Additionally, before the imposition of the Clean Car Discount, registrations of used cars were generally higher than new car registrations on a seasonally adjusted basis. Since the imposition of the Discount scheme, this relationship has flipped, with more new cars than used cars registered each month, after adjusting for seasonal effects.
- The dominant trends in the car market in October continued to be the growing popularity of new, small, and electric or hybrid vehicles. However, the softer level of rental car registrations meant new car registrations were weaker than expected. We anticipated some caution in the rental car market, but as demand from international tourist arrivals continues to grow, we expect stronger rental registrations in November and December than would otherwise be the case.
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