Non-residential building consents

Hospital and storage buildings fuel non-res growth

1 Nov 2022

Our take on the latest Non-residential building consents (Tue 1 Nov 2022)

Value of non-res consents
$833m
In September 2022
Consents up 36% from September 2021
Hospital consents totalled $530m in the September quarter

The key numbers...

  • There was $833m worth of non-residential building consents issued in September, up 36% from a year ago, and continuing the strength in consents seen throughout 2022.
  • The biggest positive contributions to activity came from hospital and storage buildings, totalling $261m and $147m respectively.
  • Hospital building was boosted by a $132m consent as part of redevelopment work at North Shore Hospital, as well as a $35m consent for construction at the private Ormiston Hospital. There were also sizable hospital consent totals in Waipā ($23m), Tauranga ($17m), and Ōrākei ($14m).
  • There were significant increases in the level of storage building consents in Hamilton ($24m), Franklin ($22m), and Ōrākei ($10m).
  • Although the monthly total of education building was down from a year ago, September’s $149m figure was notable for a $60m consent associated with the new St Ignatius of Loyola Catholic College to be built in Drury.

Consents push to new record high

Non-residential consents, annual running total, 2009/10 $m
4397

...and our reaction

  • Non-residential consents for the September quarter totalled $2.52b, about $106m (or 4.4%) higher than we had allowed for in our most recent forecasts. However, with capacity constraints across the construction industry remaining critical, this strength will not necessarily translate into upward revisions to our near-term projections of work put in place.
  • Private sector consents for the quarter were up 25% from the September 2021 quarter, the strongest growth in over a year. Even allowing for double-digit cost growth, this trend indicates a willingness to push ahead with construction plans at this stage, despite rising interest rates and mounting concerns about the domestic and international economic outlook.
  • We anticipate substantial strength in consent values between now and the end of 2022, with major hospital and social building projects scheduled to get underway shortly. However, ongoing questions over exact plans for Dunedin Hospital highlight the risks of further delays to projects and changes to scope as cost increases bite. The lack of workers also threatens to prevent projects from progressing, undermining the industry’s capacity to deliver and leading to further delays and cost increases.