Residential building consents

First decline for townhouse consents in three years

30 Sept 2022

Our take on the latest Residential building consents (Fri 30 Sept 2022)

Annual dwelling consents
50,653
As at August 2022
Townhouse consents down 5.4% from August 2021
House consents down 12% from August 2021

The key numbers...

  • August’s total residential consent number was solid, at 4,547, up 0.9% from August last year, keeping the annual consent total above 50,600.
  • Weakness in townhouse consents was the most interesting facet of the data, given this dwelling type has averaged annual growth of 51% throughout the last year. The 5.4% drop in townhouses compared with August 2021 was the first annual decline since 2019 and the biggest fall since 2017.
  • The weakness in townhouses was offset by strength in the lumpier apartment and retirement unit categories. The monthly total of 441 retirement units was the highest on record, with 387 of these units coming in Auckland, Northland, and Waikato.
  • Apartment consents topped 400 for the first time since March. Most of these apartments were in Auckland, but Otago recorded its highest monthly apartment total (52) since March 2020.
  • House consent numbers lifted slightly from the previous two months, and although they were down 12% from a year ago, this result was an improvement on the 22% declines averaged over the last four months.

New dwelling consent numbers

Annual running totals
4339

...and our reaction

  • Residential consent numbers are still remarkably resilient given the sharp correction occurring in the housing market. For the three months to August, the largest declines in consent numbers were in provincial North Island regions.
  • Consent numbers in Auckland and Wellington, where the house price falls to date have been the largest, are only down by 3-4%pa in the three months to August.
  • Strong retirement unit consent numbers reflect a catch-up of the pause in activity that occurred when COVID-19 hit, as well as the continued need for expansion of the retirement village sector due to increasing demand from the aging population.
  • One month’s data is not enough to be confident of a turning point for townhouse consents. The August 2021 townhouse result was particularly strong, so it seems likely that the annual townhouse consent total could still push to new record highs throughout the rest of this year.
  • Nevertheless, we still expect overall consent numbers to weaken markedly during 2023. Downward momentum in house prices continues to exceed our expectations, and the near-term outlook for interest rates is still being revised higher as inflationary pressures remain persistent throughout the economy.