Our take on the latest Residential building consents (Tue 31 May 2022)
Dwelling consents fell 6.9%pa in April
Annual consents still above 50,000
Is this the peak already
The key numbers...
- There were 3,719 new dwelling consents issued in April, which was 6.9% lower than April last year. Annual dwelling consents are still above 50,000 and 18% higher than the previous 12 months.
- Despite fewer residential consents being issued, the value of consents was up 9.4%pa in April, which is reflective of the increased cost of building rather than the volume of construction work.
- Standalone house consents led the fall in April and were down 10%pa.
- Townhouse consents remained strong (up 51%), but it was not enough to counter the large falls in apartment consents and retirement consents, down 44% and 42%pa respectively. Overall, attached dwelling consents were down 2.8%pa in April.
- Consenting activity was weakest in Taranaki (down 55%) and Bay of Plenty (down 37%), and strongest in Marlborough (up 105%) and Tasman (up 48%pa).
New dwelling consents still above 50,000
Annual running total
...and our reaction
- April saw a slowdown in residential consenting activity, although consent volumes are still sitting at very high levels. Despite the broader slowdown, townhouses continue to grow, making up a larger share of monthly consents.
- We expected consecutive months of house price declines to slow consenting activity, so we would not be surprised if March 2022 ended up being the peak of this residential construction boom.
- Annual consents are double what they were in 2015, and the rate of growth in the residential construction space during 2021 has been eye-watering.
- The extent of the housing market decline, and whether input cost rises begin to slow or become more predictable, will be pivotal as to whether there is a soft landing or a hard landing for an extremely busy residential construction sector.
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