Our take on the latest Employment indicators (Thu 28 Apr 2022)
Filled jobs down 0.1% (sa) in March
Earnings per filled job up 7.0% in March
Employment of workers in their mid to late 20s down 2.5%pa
The key numbers...
- The number of filled jobs edged down 0.1% (seasonally adjusted) in March, illustrating the labour supply has reached its limit, with total filled jobs sitting 2.9% higher than in March 2021.
- The trend of strong earnings growth continues, with earnings per filled job up 7.0% in March.
- The number of people aged 15 to 19 in employment in March was 12.7% greater than in March 2020, pre-pandemic.
- Filled jobs of those in their mid-to-late 20s fell 2.5%pa, bucking the positive trend in employment generally seen in the last year.
- Professional services, construction and health remain the industries with the largest growth in filled jobs, increasing by 14,477, 13,225, and 10,132 respectively.
- Accommodation and food services fell to the bottom of the pack in March, with filled jobs down 3,250 from a year ago.
School leavers in, late-20s out
Filled jobs, March 2021, annual % change
...and our reaction
- The labour market is showing signs it has hit maximum capacity. Employment growth is slowing, but earnings growth remains high, indicating the supply of workers has not kept pace with demand.
- As border restrictions ease, the ability to attract migrant workers to New Zealand will increase, easing pressures on labour supply.
- However, we think the risks of a looming brain drain are more concerning, given the timing of border restrictions easing, complications related to Omicron, and the visa entry process, despite recently announced exemptions for agriculture.
- Despite strong employment growth across nearly all ages in the last two years, the number of workers aged 25 to 29 continues to fall. These workers are being driven overseas through pent-up demand to travel and migrated for work opportunities.
- With labour supply maxing out but still plenty of jobs we expect wages to rise, the extent of this rise will also determine the net flow of worker in or out New Zealand.
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