Employment indicators

Job growth comes off the accelerator

28 Mar 2022

Our take on the latest Employment indicators (Mon 28 Mar 2022)

Filled jobs down 0.3% (seasonally adjusted) in February
Earnings per filled job up 7.3%pa in Feb
Has the labour market squeeze reached its limit

The key numbers...

  • The number of filled jobs fell 0.3% (seasonally adjusted) in February, going against the general trend of jobs growth in 2021, and leaving total filled job numbers 3.4% higher than a year ago.
  • Earnings per filled job keeps increasing and was 7.3% higher than a year ago in February. Average earnings are now 8.1% higher over the year to February, compared with the 12 months before.
  • The professional services industry has over 14,000 more filled jobs than a year ago, the largest gain by industry. The other largest increase were for construction (up 13,200), healthcare and social assistance (up 10,300), and public administration and safety (up 9,800).
  • Agriculture, forestry, and fishing jobs are down 4,300 from a year ago, the worst industry performer. Info media and telecommunications, as well as arts and recreation, are two other industries losing jobs, down 3,500 and 1,900 respectively.

Examining job changes by industry

Filled jobs by industry, February 2022
4178

...and our reaction

  • The employment growth that we saw throughout 2021 was never going to be sustainable, and employment is showing signs of maxing out due to the tightness in the labour market.
  • Employment in construction, health, and the public service have benefitted from large amounts of monetary and fiscal stimulus over the last two years. This stimulus will reduce in coming years and limit further jobs growth.
  • Employment in tourism and agriculture, forestry, and fishing industries should get a boost later in 2022 from borders fully reopening in May, which is much sooner than previously communicated.
  • The other side of the coin for open borders is how many people will quit their jobs to pursue any plans they had to move overseas, which they’ve been putting off for the last two years?
  • With the cost of living being the talk about town at the moment, real wage growth in New Zealand will be a defining factor determining the labour supply over the next few years.