Non-residential building consents

Education pulls down weak non-res

2 Mar 2022

Our take on the latest Non-residential building consents (Wed 2 Mar 2022)

Non-residential consents
$447m
In January 2022
Consents down 7.3%pa in Jan 2022
Sharp drop in education consents

The key numbers...

  • The value of non-residential building consents fell 7.3% in January 2022 from a year prior, due to a particularly weak month for education consents.
  • Education consents in January fell by 62%pa, or $97m. The drop was centred on Auckland, with the value of education building approvals in the region falling $78m (down 80%pa).
  • The next largest declines were in hotel and office buildings, with building consents falling by $33m and $11m respectively.
  • Even factory consents, which have been strong throughout the last year, softened, down $10m (or 13%) in January from a year prior.
  • However, not all build types had a bad month in January. Warehouses, social buildings, hostels, and retail building all grew, up by $40m, $30m, $23m and $16m respectively.

Non-residential consents

Annual running total, $m
4173

...and our reaction

  • Public sector consents have been leading the charge for non-residential consents recently, so the big drop in education consents in January resulted in a sharp drop in overall activity. 
  • Private sector consents had a relatively strong result in January and helped mitigate the weakness resulting from the poor public sector result.
  • Rising interest rates could negatively affect future growth in private sector consents, as the cost of capital for businesses will be rising.
  • Non-residential building costs are growing at a fast rate, up by 7.7%pa in December and expected to rise further. Rising costs driven by supply chain issues and labour shortages will make translating building intentions into activity more difficult and less profitable.