Our take on the latest Employment indicators (Mon 28 Feb 2022)
Filled jobs rose 0.5% (seasonally adjusted) in January
Earnings per filled job up by 7.8%pa over year to Jan
Early signs of pressure to grow further in some areas
The key numbers...
- The number of filled jobs rose 0.5% in January 2022 (seasonally adjusted), the strongest monthly rise since the Delta outbreak began in August 2021. Job numbers also rose strongly on an annual basis, up by 4.2%, with nearly 91,000 roles added over the last year.
- Earnings per filled job accelerated further at the start of 2022, with growth up to 7.8%pa on average for the 12 months to January 2022.
- Employment growth remains stronger in the North Island, with sustained increases in the upper North Island as economic activity regained more momentum over summer. Growth in Auckland’s filled jobs rose to 4.4%pa, the best result of the two years of data available on a monthly basis.
- The professional services industry saw the largest annual growth, at 8.3%pa, in January 2022. Financial services (5.8%), education and training (5.6%), and transport (4.5%) industries all recorded accelerating jobs growth in January.
- Primary industries and arts and recreation jobs remained lower than a year earlier. Construction, accommodation and food services, real estate, and health industry employment all recorded gains, but at a slower pace in January.
Another strong month for jobs in January
Filled jobs by industry, 000s, national, January 2022
...and our reaction
- Employment continues to rise across New Zealand, with January’s strong outcome confirming expectations of rising economic activity and a tight labour market.
- Omicron is likely to intensify labour market pressures temporarily, with significant numbers of staff isolating making it difficult to resource business activity. We also note the potential for employment growth to slow in February, as the move to Red and challenges of Omicron could see some firms temporarily pause their hiring.
- Despite these challenges, the most pressing concerns is that New Zealand is starting to hit capacity limits, which would curtail further rampant jobs growth and economic activity due to the difficulty of finding workers.
- If slower employment growth in some industries is sustained, and caused by the difficulty of finding new workers, it would add weight to our expectations that higher wage increases are on the cards, as businesses pay more to attract and retain workers in a highly competitive market.
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