Residential building consents

Consents rise, but momentum has started to wane

13 Jan 2022

Our take on the latest Residential building consents (Thu 13 Jan 2022)

48,522
Residential consents in the year to Nov 2021
3-month annual increase slows to 19%pa
Attached dwellings hit highest monthly share on record

The key numbers...

  • Residential consents hit a new record monthly total of 4,688 in November. On a seasonally adjusted basis, consents rose 0.6% and snapped a two-month seasonally adjusted decline.
  • Townhouses continue their rise, up 46%pa in November and recording their second highest monthly total on record. Growth in retirement units is also accelerating, reaching 49%pa in the month to take year-end growth to 51%pa. Apartments also rose, albeit at a slower 14%pa. Combined, attached dwellings accounted for 54.7% of monthly consents, the largest share on record.
  • Standalone houses continue to be weaker, with a seventh straight month of seasonally adjusted falls. House consents grew just 3.4%pa in November, compared to 21%pa growth for all dwellings.
  • Auckland consents rose above 20,000pa in November, with the city accounting for 41% of nationwide growth in consents over the last year. Waikato also made it above a milestone 5,000 annual consents.
  • The value of consented alterations and additions (renovations) was up 22%pa over the 12 months to November, to $2.3b.

Consents rise, but momentum has started to wane

Monthly consents, seasonally adjusted
4108

...and our reaction

  • Although consent activity still seems to be roaring on the surface, momentum in growth is slowing as New Zealand approaches 50,000 consents a year. Getting through the backlog of consents, construction delays, and rising interest rates and materials costs are all contributing to this slowdown in momentum.
  • That’s not to say that the residential market is weak – far from it. But the limits on further growth seem to be closer than might have been expected, if this levelling off is any indication.
  • Capacity constraints continue to be felt across the sector. Higher costs, and the difficulties finding labour and materials, might now be influencing decisions on future projects, with a slower release of further consents possible.
  • If the average annual increase in consents persists over the next two months, 50,000 consents will be reached, but with momentum waning, that growth might not be achievable.
  • Medium-density townhouses continue to be the shining light, with recent legislative changes set to support this build type and help sustain growth. High land prices will also support more townhouses across the country. Retirement units are also recovering well, after hitting pause as COVID-19 broke out in 2020.