Our take on the latest Employment indicators (Mon 29 Nov 2021)
Filled jobs rise 0.1% (seasonally adjusted) in October
Construction employment up 8.6%pa
11% of jobs covered by most recent completed Wage Subsidy Payment
The key numbers...
- The number of filled jobs rose in October 2021, up 0.1% from September (seasonally adjusted), the ninth-straight month of job gains, with nearly 16,000 more jobs (excluding seasonal effects) since July (pre-Delta).
- Despite COVID restrictions, employment levels in Auckland are still rising, up 3.4%pa in October. Employment growth throughout the mid-North Island remains high, up over 4%pa, with lower North Island and South Island employment also up, albeit at a slower pace.
- Construction employment growth is on a seemingly unstoppable roll, rising 8.6%pa, adding more than 15,000 jobs than from a year ago.
- Professional services, health, and public sector employment growth remains key to current jobs growth. Accommodation and food services employment continues to rise too, but at a notably slower rate in recent months.
- Business wage bills are getting more expensive, with earnings per filled job rising 6.6% on average over the last year, more than double the 10-year average of 3.1%pa.
Low but sustained jobs growth
Filled jobs, quarterly % change, seasonally adjusted
...and our reaction
- New Zealand’s labour market continues to add more jobs, a healthy sign given continued economic restrictions in some areas and industries across New Zealand.
- Current jobs growth is slower than pre-Delta, after strong hiring activity in the middle of 2021. Monthly underlying net job additions have added just under 6,000 jobs since August compared to 41,000 through the middle of the year. Slower job growth is to be expected given the uncertainty and limitations on business operations, coupled with skills shortages.
- There’s still a lot of jobs being supported by the Wage Subsidy, with the latest full payment data showing 265,000 jobs supported, representing around 11% of the workforce. Unsurprisingly jobs in Auckland and hospitality account for the lion’s share of this support.
- There’s still some unease from businesses about what will happen after the wage subsidies end as New Zealand moves to the Traffic Light system this week. But last year also saw substantial concern from businesses about the same loss of support, and the labour market continued to add more jobs, and jobless support decreased as economic activity bounced back.
- Time will tell how the loss of subsidies will interact with the still high levels of employment and job demand across New Zealand. So far, all signs point to a tight labour market masking any fall in employment activity.
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